Thoughts on Barkley, Calhoun, Iverson, Vitale

Barkley for Governor?:

For some time, Charles Barkley has expressed an interest in running for public office, specifically, the governorship of Alabama. However, there may be a better opportunity in another state. Since he will be serving a jail term in a few weeks, that should give him the inside track in the next race for governor of Illinois where incarceration seems to be a right of passage for ambitious politicians. Usually the governor does time after his term in office, but why not reverse the sequence and get it out of the way?

Another Look at Iverson for Billups:

Questions were raised here and elsewhere about the wisdom of trading Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson at the beginning of the season. Or should we say lack of wisdom? The Pistons, with Iverson, had until recently gone under .500 and were fading fast. Meanwhile, the Nuggets were in first place in their division, a real upside surprise. To add fuel to the fire, with Iverson out with a back injury, the Motor City squad has won two in a row to get back to .500, including a win over the Celtics on Sunday. Defenders of the trade can still cite cap space considerations as the primary rationale for the deal. But is this a case of destroying the team in order to save it?

Jim Calhoun - How to Win Friends and Influence People:

Jim Calhoun of Connecticut has never come across as Mr. Warmth or as a master of tact or diplomacy. So when he was ambushed by a journalist/activist/community organizer over his lucrative pay package, sure enough he proceeded to propel a very awkward situation into a public relations nightmare, saying, among other things, that he was getting old and would "like to be able to retire one day". Calhoun must be another one of those gloom-and-doomers who think Social Security and food stamps won't be there when he needs them.

A million dollars has practically become the minimum salary for big-time college football and basketball coaches, and many coaches like Billy Gillispie, Billy Donovan and Nick Saban make considerably more, not including outside income. Saban was reportedly given the entire state of Alabama. There are probably a dozen things Calhoun could have said to diffuse the situation, like "I don't think this is the appropriate time to discuss your legitimate question but I would be glad to meet with you at a mutually convenient time either publicly or privately". Or, "I am aware that I make a ridiculous amount of money to do something I love but I bring a great deal of revenue into the university and in our society, for better or worse, collegiate athletics is big business". Maybe the University of Connecticut should include anger management classes in Calhoun's compensation package.

Dick Vitale - Spokesman for the Downtrodden:

In commenting on the Calhoun affair, Dick Vitale, never content to put just one foot in his mouth, said that Calhoun is grossly underpaid. It's not the money you understand, but the principle.

Stephon Marbury - Worth the Risk?

There is always a risk when a team with good chemistry acquires a problem child, as the Celtics have done with Stephon Marbury. However, in this instance, Rasheed Wallace could be an appropriate case study. Wallace was a perennial poster boy for underachievement and uneven effort as a Trailblazer while being paid tens of millions - not exactly a testimony to his professionalism. But when traded to a championship caliber team, he took advantage of the opportunity and cleaned up his act enough to become an integral part of Detroit's championship run. Marbury could do the same for Boston. It's also unlikely that Kevin Garnett would put up with any nonsense from his new teammate. The one difference, and it's a major one, is that Marbury hasn't played for 18 months.

Chad Durbin's Importance to the Phillies

Last July 4th, on a rainy night in Philadelphia, the Phillies hosted their kissin cousins, the Mets. The odds makers makers had to like New York's chances as free agent sweepstakes winner Johan Santana was facing off against J.A. Happ in the latter's first big league start. Prior to the game, a simple but moving ceremony was held with members of our armed forces to mark the national holiday. Once the game got underway, the home team probably wished they could enlist the Army and Navy into their cause as Santana pitched like the superstar he is paid to be. He looked untouchable through five innings, but in the bottom of the 6th, the Phils were able maximize a few seeing eye hits and manufacture 2 runs.

Meanwhile, Happ was giving a good account of himself but he succumbed to a high pitch count and four walks after yielding two runs. Charlie Manuel pulled him with two outs in the fifth and brought in Chad Durbin. This is where things started to get interesting. Durbin proceeded to pitch 2 1/3 innings allowing no runs or hits and striking out 6 of the 7 batters he faced - one of the most scintillating performances of any Phillie hurler all year. Against a pitcher like Santana this effort might well have been wasted. But in a scenario which would be repeated more than once in '08, Durbin held the fort for Madson, who held the fort for Lidge. And Shane Victorino came through with a game-winning hit in the bottom of the 9th against the always cooperative Mets' bullpen. A most unlikely 3-2 victory.

31 year-old Chad Durbin probably carries one of the lowest profiles on the Phillies' squad and not just because of his understated personality. Prior to last season, his 10th in the big leagues, his career had been rather nondescript. In 2006, in fact, he spent a good deal of time in the minors. But in 2007, he had a very serviceable year with the Tigers. He made 36 appearances including 19 starts and compiled an 8-7 record with an ERA of 4.72, his personal best for a full season. However, the Tigers thought they had enough pitchers (remember Dontrelle Willis?) so Durbin opted for free agency and signed with the Phils.

In 2008, his first year in South Philly, coming out of the bullpen in middle relief for the most part, Durbin pitched 87 innings with an ERA of 2.87 with 63 strikeouts and a 5-4 record. A breakout season. He played a key role in a bullpen which was the glue for the team for most of the year when the hitting sputtered and the starters faltered. And the Fightin's were hardly loaded with long relievers so the Illinois native and Louisiana resident provided an unexpected lift, particularly in the mid-portion of the campaign when the starting rotation was being held together with scotch tape and Krazy Glue - Myers was in the minors and Kendricks was faltering.

The question before the house is can Durbin continue to be effective? There were some dark clouds forming late last year. While his ERA was 1.89 before the All Star break, it was 4.33 after the break with a lower strikeout ratio. Moreover, in September and October, the ERA rose to 5.50. The explanation most often offered for the drop-off was fatigue. Durbin was called on so often early in the season, he was running on empty in August and September, or at least that was the theory offered by the coaches and front office. Hopefully, this was the case and the coaches will be able to pace him this summer. But it's also possible that he was coming back down to earth - remember that his career numbers didn't foreshadow greatness. Or perhaps the hitters around the league just started to get on to him as he had been primarily an American League pitcher - his National League experience consisted of 9 innings with Arizona in 2004.

These questions are not trivial. While one of the big political stories last year was the "bridge to nowhere", the big story involving the Phillies was the bridge to Lidge, which culminated in the bridge to a championship. Chad Durbin was an important component of that bridge. With J.C. Romero out for a long stretch, the team is going to need the rest of the pitching staff to pick up the slack. Durbin could play a key role here if he can help the team get past the 7th inning when the starters get the early hook. The right-hander may not be irreplaceable, but the team would prefer not to have to find out. They don't want that bridge to Lidge to turn into a wide open drawbridge.

Citizens Park, Homer Heaven - Fact or Fiction?

Since its official opening on April 3, 2004, Citizens Bank Park has been considered a hitter's park, particularly friendly to the long ball. In that first year, 228 home runs were hit in the stadium, the most in the NL. After the 2005 season, the fences in left and left center were moved back 5 ft. But the Bank continues to be among the leaders in homers allowed.

There have been numerous analyses, some claiming to be very sophisticated, of major league parks and their hitter-friendliness. But in fact it would require a battery of Pentagon super computers to factor in all the variables - number of at-bats, temperature and wind, sinker ballers vs. rising fastballers, day games vs night games, quality of hitting, quality of pitching, and on and on. Here are a few unsophisticated observations and we'll concentrate on the National League since the DH muddies the water in the AL:

Last year, 189 HR were hit at the Bank, 3rd in the NL, and 109 of those were by Phillies. But bleacherreport.com points out the Phils hit 105 HR on the road, implying (and only that) that the home field did not provide a particular advantage. Among the team's prime power hitters, only Chase Utley seemed to benefit significantly at home - 20 of his 33 HR were at home, and that seems about right.

Turning this around, the top three starting pitchers - Hamels, Myers, and Moyer - gave up about the same number of homers at home and on the road. Hamels and Myers, in particular, are home run prone, so this is noteworthy.

So after five years, it would seem reasonable to conclude that the Phillies' home field is receptive to the home run, but not dramatically so. Aside from special cases like the wind in Chicago and San Francisco, or the altitude of Colorado, if there is a common denominator to indicate a park's susceptibility to the long ball, it's a simplistic one - dimensions. Most home runs are hit between the lines and power alleys. In parks where that zone is in the 330-370 ft range - Philly, New York (where Shea Stadium is on the verge of being replaced), Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, etc. - there tend to be more long balls than in those where the alleys approach 390 ft like Atlanta, St. Louis and San Diego. So ballparks are fine but I'll take good hitting and pitching every time.

The Phillies' Catching Conundrum

One of the puzzles of the 2008 season was the precipitous decline in the offensive production of the Phillies' catching core of Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste. Ruiz, who by year end had won the everyday job, hit .219 in 320 at-bats. Coste hit .263 in 274 at-bats. This was in stark contrast to 2007, when Ruiz hit .259 in 374 a-bats and Coste .279 in 129 at-bats. And Coste hit .328 in almost 200 at-bats in '06. So last year's decline is hard to ignore and even harder to explain. Particularly painful - together, the two catchers hit into 24 double plays in '08; that's a whole lot of rally killers.

Coste's drop off was particularly striking as he hit only .239 after the All Star break last year - this from a player who had contributed many clutch hits in the previous two years and had become something of a folk hero. Now his place on the roster seems to be in jeapardy as he competes with the newly acquired Ronny Paulino. The latter's resume is not overwhelming as he spent most of last season in the minors but prior to that he did have two respectable hitting seasons with the Pirates.

Ruiz did show signs of life last year. After the All Star break, he hit .244 and he was an offensive star in the playoffs so it will be most interesting to see which version of the man from Panama emerges this year. No less an authority than Chris Coste believes the late-blooming bat of Ruiz was the real McCoy.

So why does this matter? Is a good-hitting catcher a necessity? The Phils did after all win the world championship. Yes, but to do that a lot of stars had to line up in the South Philly sky - Can Brad Lidge be perfect for the duration of the Obama administration? Can Ryan Howard hit 100 home runs every September? Can Ryan Madson find another 5 mph on his fastball? Look at some of the catchers in the rest of the division - Brian McCann of the Braves, John Baker of the Marlins, Brian Schneider of the Mets - and you find solid hitters with power. Carlos Ruiz may be an excellent defensive catcher but if the Phillies are going to make a run as perennial contenders, it would sure help if he could raise his average 30 points or so.

Trade Deadline Approaches But Sixers Should Stand Pat

With Elton Brand officially out of the equation for this year, the Sixers are now officially a running team again - in effect the same team that was so successful last year. And in recent weeks, they have been replicating that success. But a number of national and local commentators seem to have concluded that the home team has limited upside with its existing roster. They will make the playoffs, of course, probably in the 7th spot, but would then lose to Boston, Cleveland or Orlando, or so these pundits conclude. However, a cursory look at the standings shows this to be far from a foregone conclusion. The Sixers in fact have a very legitimate shot at finishing as high as 4th so they wouldn't even have to face one of the Big 3 in the first round.

But why not raise the bar and set more ambitious goals? A Sixer upset of the Cavs, Celtics or Magic is not unrealistic, for two reasons. First, because of the turmoil in Philly this year surrounding the Brand integration, or lack thereof, the team has not had the chance to recapture last year's momentum. They are in the process of doing that now, and as their confidence builds, there is room for significant upside over the next couple of months.

Second, and perhaps more important, the team's young players are better than they were last year. Andre Iguodala is approaching veteran status and playing his best ball. Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams are showing more maturity to go with their explosive offensive games. Willie Green and even Royal Ivey are solid role players. Sam Dalembert, limiting his role to shot blocking, rebounding and alley-oop dunks is contributing again. Then there is Marreese Speights who may be the perfect counterpoint to Dalembert's offensive underachievement. Speights is the wild card for this team if he can limit his immaturity mistakes. He is already creating match-up nightmares for the opposition. The Sixers didn't have Speights last year when they lost to the Pistons in 6 games, so he brings a major new dimension to the team.

And finally there is Andre Miller. Iguodala fans make take offense but Miller is the GPS for this team - passing, scoring, rebounding, defending, making good decisions. Here's a question. Which point guard in the Eastern Conference, or the Western Conference for that matter, is outplaying Miller this year? The first one with the correct answer wins two tickets to Cher's 15th Annual Farewell Concert ................ Time's up. The correct answer? No point guard is doing more for his team than Andre Miller, All Star balloting not withstanding.

Yes, the Sixers could use additional outside shooting. Yes they could use more size at guard and forward. But not at the expense of the delicate chemistry it's taken a half of a season to regain. They should allow the trade deadline to come and go and make their playoff run with this group. Any major personnel moves should be delayed until the off season.

Carlos Beltran vs. Shane Victorino - Who is More Valuable?

If you were going to mass produce a major league outfielder, Carlos Beltran of the Mets would be an excellent prototype. 6 ft 1 in, 190 lbs, excellent foot speed and base stealer, solid defensively, switch hitter with tape measure power on both sides. To top it all off, it does it all effortlessly. After Beltran turned the baseball world on its ear in 2004 while with the Astros, hitting 8 home runs in the post-season, the Mets signed him to the biggest contract in franchise history to that point, 7 years for $119 million. After watching the young man from Puerto Rico play, you wonder how he does not hit .350 and 50 HR every year. It's unfair that anyone should be so talented.

But in his four years with the Mets, he has not hit .350, nor .320 or .300. His best was .282. His highest home run total, 41. He has averaged over 100 rbi and it's true his production has been limited by injuries, but it would be hard to argue that he has lived up to his potential. And there is the nagging question of his effort, which often appears sub-maximal if not downright lackadaisical. While it might be difficult to distinguish Beltran's effortless style from apparent disinterest, we have seen balls get past the center fielder where he exhibits no sense of urgency in tracking them down. While that may not hold up in court, it is pretty convincing evidence.

Contrast Beltran with his Philadelphia counterpart Shane Victorino. While the New Yorker is poetry in motion, Victorino takes the whirling dervish approach, in constant motion. Shane is 5 ft 9 in and 160 lb whose arm, speed and defense are the cornerstones of his game - as good as there is in the big leagues. Hitting is another story. Victorino will not be making any batting instructional videos; at least, they won't be best-sellers. He is a switch-hitting slap hitter who has to fight the urge to pull away from every pitch. But despite breaking every hitting fundamental - Ted Williams must roll over in his grave - Victorino somehow manages to hit .290 with double digits in home runs. That he can achieve this in such an unorthodox manner is a tribute to his own athleticism, strength, and toughness.

And there is absolutely no questioning Shane Victorino's effort. He treats every throw, every stride, every swing as if it was his last. One of his most impressive stats last year was scoring 102 runs, despite frequently hitting in front of his team's weakest hitters. He was often in the middle of late inning rallies. In the 2008 playoffs, Shane led the Phils' offense with 14 hits and 13 rbi and showed the rest of the country his high-energy style. In other words, Victorino overachieves while Beltran underachieves. And if you want to run a cost-benefit analysis, the Phillies are making out like bandits. In the last three years, Victorino was paid less than $500,000 and in '09 will make 3.1 million. Where is Ryan Howard's agent when you need him?

You can make the case that, for a fraction of the cost, the Flyin' Hawaiian has been at least as valuable to the Phillies as Carlos Beltran has been to the Mets. More importantly, the man from the Pacific has one more world championship than the man from the Caribbean. The lingering concern is that one of these years, Beltran is actually going to reach his potential. And with the steps the Mets have made to bolster their bullpen, that would have major implications for the Phillies and the rest of the National League.

Elton Brand and Shaquille O'Neal - Something in Common

(The following post was written before the news that Elton Brand would require season-ending surgery.)

It is a very, very imperfect comparison, but the Sixers' acquisition of Elton Brand has some interesting similarities to the Suns' trade for Shaquille O'Neal last year. The Suns had been a running team with the most potent fast break in the NBA. With Steve Nash the orchestrator and facilitator, and the likes of Boris Diaw, Amare Stoudemire, and Shawn Marion filling the lanes, why wouldn't they run? But in consecutive seasons, Phoenix came up short in the playoffs in the powerful Western Conference, in one instance agonizingly so, and a consensus seemed to develop that the team as constructed wasn't equipped to go all the way.

So GM Steve Kerr rolled the dice big time and brought the aging Big Diesel to the Valley of the Sun for Marion and others. A couple of months ago, Kerr completed the makeover and traded off Diaw and Raja Bell, apparently deciding to emphasize a half-court offense and get more use out of Shaq. What makes the situation even more unusual is that they're actually sitting the 37 year-old Diesel every few games to accommodate his age and ailing body. Roger Clemens established the precedent of playing half a season and now we have part-time basketball players. The upshot of all this is that the Suns are still very inconsistent. They are in second place in their division but they have lost 8 of their last 12 including some very bad performances against some very bad teams.

So what does this have to do with Elton Brand and the Sixers? The Philadelphians had established themselves late last year as a premier running team as they swept into the playoffs and everyone expected they would continue in this mode in 2008-09 - they certainly had the young athletic personnel for it. But there seemed to be a lingering suspicion, in the front office and elsewhere, that they had hit a wall, that they had maxed out with their cast of characters. Enter Brand, the perceived savior of the half-court offense. And enter the struggles early in the season with the inability to restart the fast break, and the inconsistencies lately, interposed by a solid stretch when, by a strange coincidence, Brand was rehabilitating his shoulder.

Yes, the comparison with O'Neal is a stretch. Shaq is much older and is one of the most unique players the NBA has seen. Elton Brand is surely better suited to run the court than Shaq but the Duke alumnus' injuries in recent years seem to be aging him prematurely. If the Sixers and/or the Suns thought they would have to abandon the fast break, or at least significantly curtail it, would they still have made the trades?

Boston's Take on Victory Over Sixers

The Celtics beat the Sixers by a point last night on Ray Allen's three-point shot in the last second. The focus of the coverage in the Philly press after the game was the failure to cover Allen, arguably the possessor of the purest jump shot in the NBA. Thaddeus Young said he and Sam Dalembert failed to communicate with each other allowing Allen to spot up. And of course there are the neverending subplots surrounding Elton Brand - Is he healthy or isn't he? Does he fit in with the team's style? Is he on the trading block? Etc, etc. Enough material for a TV miniseries. Here are some views from the other side:

Celtic coach Doc Rivers emphasized his team's knack for winning this kind of game - "Good teams find a way to win, and we did that, especially without Kevin (Garnett)".

Frank Dell'Apa of the Boston Globe talked about the absence of Garnett (out with the flu) being "noticeable both for this defensive presence and offensive skills, and also for his inspirational qualities".

The Boston Herald reported that Allen himself experienced flu-like symptoms earlier in the day and was questionable for the game.

As for Allen's open shot at the end, wide body forward Glen Davis took credit for screening Young just enough to prevent Young from contesting Allen's winning jumper.

Jason Werth vs. Aaron Rowand - Another Look

Now that Jason Werth has signed with the Phillies and is expected to be a regular in the outfield for at least the next two years, we can re-evaluate one of the team's significant personnel moves of a season ago - the decision not to go all out to re-sign Aaron Rowand. Even though Werth plays right field and Rowand center, Werth was in effect Rowand's replacement as Shane Victorino shifted to center.

Recall that Rowand, who is going on 32, was coming off a career year in 2007 batting .309 with 27 HR. Add in excellent defense, a spot on the All Star team, and a very popular player. Rowand sought a long-term, big dollar contract which the Phillies were unwilling to provide. But the Giants were to the tune of $60 million for five years. The Giants can't be satisfied with their investment after one year. Their new center fielder hit .271 with 13 hrs and 126 SO in 549 at-bats. Rowand's defenders blame some of the decline in production to AT&T Park which is less congenial to hitters than Citizens Park. However, the 2008 numbers were in fact more in line with Rowand's career numbers. And his high strikeout total (126), with rather meager power numbers, indicates he was overswinging quite a bit, a tendency which Phillie fans saw first hand during his tenure in the Delaware Valley.

Werth, who will turn 30 in May, just signed a 2 year, $10 million deal with the Phils. Werth started 2008 platooning but became a regular about mid-season so he only totaled 418 at-bats. But he made them count with 24 HR, a .273 average, good on-base percentage, as well as excellent base running and defense. However, his 119 SO are worrisome.

So, to date, it's a no-brainer. The front office comes out smelling like a rose. They are paying a slightly younger, athletic, more productive player significantly less money than the man he replaced. Yes, this cost-benefit analysis will need to revisited from time to time over the next two years. Werth in particular is going to have to show what he can do as an everyday player for an entire year. On the other hand, if Werth goes lights out, he could be in a position to break the bank when he becomes a free agent again, but that might be a nice problem to have.