The $18 Million Man

When Ryan Howard was victorious in arbitration prior to last season, his new salary of $10 million marked an exponential increase from his previous contract. He then proceeded to get off to an absolutely dreadful start and it didn't get a whole lot better from there. With Howard heading into the late summer with his batting average mired in the low .200's, unspectacular power numbers by Citizens Park standards, his usual boatload of strikeouts, and the shabbiest defense since the Maginot Line, that 10 million was looking less like a bargain and more like a heist. Then Ryan went on his now famous September tear, leading the Phils to the playoffs and belatedly throwing his hat into the MVP ring. That stretch run could turn out to be one of the most lucrative since Secretariat won the Triple Crown.

If Howard had finished the season at .220 with 37 or so home runs, which is where he was headed until late August, he surely would have been in no position to seek a salary upgrade. In fact, the Phillies could have reasonably sought a reduction to maybe 8 mill, although the team would probably have been accused of being cruel and heartless. Alternatively, the team might have made a concerted effort to trade the first baseman. But history took a decidedly different turn.

Now, with their bargaining position resurrected, Ryan's negotiators are pushing the envelope, seeking $18 million for 2009. At that rate, his September binge translates to as much as an extra 10 million for this year alone, and who knows how much more down the road. Quite a windfall. Of course, all of this is very hypothetical. The arbitration process has all the predictability of a Ouija board, and it may not even reach arbitration. However, it's not unreasonable given the goings on in pro sports in general and major league baseball in particular.

But is Ryan Howard "worth" 18 million bucks a year? "Worth" is a loaded term. In a free market you're worth whatever they are willing to pay you, especially if the "they" includes somebody named Steinbrenner. You might argue that it's not really a free market when you have seemingly unlimited television dollars chasing an artificially limited number of players - MLB in fact has a notorious anti-trust exemption. But that debate is for another day. In the more intuitive sense, is he worth it?

The feeling here is that the 14 million that the Phils have offered is more than fair. The Albert Pujols or Derek Jeter-like consistency is just not there to justify more. Jeter and Pujols produce week after week, month after month. If their hitting slumps, they can help their teams in many other ways. Or take the example of a megastar in another sport. Kobe Bryant is paid about $20 million by the Lakers for his trouble but Bryant is almost certain to provide 40 minutes of virtuosity nightly, even if his shot happens to be off. Howard can go a week or two without going deep or even having a multiple hit game. And he can't fall back on defense or base running. Yes there are intangibles like getting pitched around but not $18 million worth.

Howard needs to prove that the numbers he put up in his MVP year a few years back were not a fluke if he is to move into the rarefied air of the very top salary earners in the game. Not that he needs to hit 58 hrs every year but his batting average needs to come off life support. It also wouldn't hurt if every time he fields a ground ball, it wasn't the equivalent of going over Niagara Falls in a barrel.