Monday, December 29, 2008

Jameer and Delonte; Nova Rules the Roost

Jameer Nelson and Delonte West Hit Their Stride

It's been deja vu all over again this year as both Jameer Nelson and Delonte West are having breakout years on contending teams in the NBA. It brings back sweet memories of Nelson and West as the magical back court tandem on St. Joseph's 30-2 team in 2003-4. Now Jameer is performing magic nightly for the Orlando Magic, West for the Cavs.

Nelson was an impact player with the Magic from the beginning and has averaged in the low double figures until this year. This season he has emerged as one of the top point guards in the Eastern Conference, currently averaging 17 ppg. West is on his third team in five years. While he had a couple of double figure scoring seasons with the Celtics, those were on some bad Celtic teams - remember them? Now playing alongside the King of the Universe in Cleveland, at shooting guard, he is averaging 12 ppg and showing the multifaceted skills he displayed at St. Joe's - defense, passing, rebounding, three-point shooting. It's fun to see these two men succeed at the next level, but not as much fun as when they were in the same backcourt five years ago.

Coincidentally, Randy Foye, the Villanova great, is also blossoming this year after several years of growing pains with the Timberwolves. West, Nelson and Foye are the three best NBA guards the Philadelphia area has produced in recent years. Any or all of them would look particularly good in a Sixers' uniform.

Villanova Rules the Big 5

Villanova clearly owns Big 5 basketball bragging rights after its 62-45 victory over Temple the other night. But Temple, with its tough national schedule, figured to give Nova more of a run for their money. The Wildcats didn't break the game open until the second half but the Owls have had too many patches of inconsistency this year, even allowing for their strength of schedule. St. Joseph's has been disappointing at 5-6 with no real quality wins. LaSalle is 7-5 with no significant wins. The bottom line is that as conference play begins, Temple, St. Joe's and LaSalle have their work cut out over the next couple of months to qualify for the big tournament. Penn (1-7) of course has no choice but to win the Ivy League title. On the other hand, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Nova doesn't get to the Big Dance.

Eagles and 2007 Phils, DiLeo Loses 4th in a Row

Eagles and 2007 Phillies Have Something in Common

The Eagles' finish is reminiscent of the Phillies' division win in 2007. Neither team could have done it without remarkable collapses by the opposition. When the Phils proceeded to get swept by Colorado in the first round of the playoffs, all the excitement generated on the final day of the regular season with Jamie Moyer's victory dissipated very quickly. For the Eagles to prove they really deserve to be in, they need to beat Minnesota. Otherwise, the exhilarating win over Dallas is reduced to a footnote.

The DiLeo Bounce is Over

Tony DiLeo is now a sub-.500 coach after Monday night's Sixer loss in Utah, the fourth consecutive loss after 3 wins:

When DiLeo took over, there was rhetoric about "new direction" and "attention to detail". In last night's post-mortem, Coach DiLeo described "phases where the team gets away" - the same thing Mo Cheeks talked about a month or two ago. The more things change, the more they remain the same. Explain to me again why the coaching change was made.

The three point line bit the Sixers again as they went 1-9. Perhaps the answer is for the team to stop taking three's, it's just not their strength. Unfortunately it was the strength of the Jazz who shot 8-18. The Sixers gave up 112 points and their three point defense or lack of it continues to be a major liability.

In the interest of at least shaking things up a bit, it may time to increase the minutes of Marreese Speights and Lou Williams. In fact, it may be time to consider starting Williams, if for no other reason than as an experiment. He has been one of the team's most consistent scorers and perhaps it would provide an adrenaline boost to the offense.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Rocky Mountain Breakdown, Sixers Lose in Denver

A very tough loss on Friday night in Denver in a game the Sixers seemed to have under control in the third quarter. But blowing a 17 point lead in the NBA, particularly on the road, with more than a quarter to go is not much more unusual than dog biting man. Some comments:

For a change, the Sixers shot respectably from the three-point line, 5-12. Unfortunately, the Nuggets went lights out, 15-31, a club record. That kind of shooting is tough to defend but Philly should have made some defensive adjustments to counter Denver's long-range barrage, particularly at crunch time. The home team scored 37 points in the fourth quarter.

Sam Dalembert played 27 minutes and totaled 13 rebounds and 2 blocks, respectable numbers. Less respectable was his offensive "output", 2 points on 1-5 shooting. He also made a huge mental error in failing to contest a dunk by Kenyon Martin late in the game. Marreese Speights scored 12 points in 18 minutes and continues to show real offensive flair.

The Sixers had another poor foul shooting night, 18-30. One assumes that the squad spends adequate practice time at the foul line. Beyond that, foul shooting is what it is. To say they would have won if they made more from the charity stripe, as some do, is like saying that if they played better they would have won.

Tony DiLeo says it doesn't matter if the team wins right now as long as they continue to improve. The emphasis on patience by the Sixer management is admirable. It was not as evident a few weeks back when they expressed a need for "new direction" and showed Mo Cheeks the door 23 games into the season.

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Free Agency Gone Wild

The Yankees' latest free agent splurge has generated much controversy and even outrage - there have even been unconfirmed reports of shoes, both loafers and oxfords, being thrown at Brian Cashman and Hank Steinbrenner. Prior to the advent of free agency in baseball, the reserve clause permitted a team to retain the rights to a player in perpetuity after that player was initially signed. Clearly the reserve clause was unfair and unjust to players and needed to be addressed, and it was, thanks to the efforts of Curt Flood. The reserve clause was overturned and the players have prospered, more than Flood or anyone else could have ever dreamed.

But there was a price to pay. Pre-free agency, the cost for for a ballpark ticket, hot dog and beverage was affordable for almost anyone. Since the players on a team were for the most part same year after year, fans could develop a connection with them. The players and the franchise were one and the same. Even watching a game on TV was more enjoyable - a faster pace with few commercials. Fast forward to free agency and what are the results? Wildly inflated salaries even for the most mediocre of players. A night at the park is now prohibitively expensive for an average family. Team rosters in flux except for stars under long-term contracts. Interminable commercial breaks during the broadcasts.

The point is that the genie is out of the bottle and has been for decades. Once you combined free agency with the arrival of cable and its insatiable need for programming, you had a combustible mix. ESPN and Fox are in the driver's seat. Money rules and in the new landscape the big media markets in New York and LA will always have a huge advantage on the free agent market. A salary cap is unwieldy and of questionable efficacy. A more punitive luxury tax might help but it's still only a slap on the wrist for a rich franchise. One even wonders how critical it is for the big market teams to win championships, at least from an economic point of view. Sure it's a lucrative bonus, but they either way, the mega-franchises will be continue to be profitable cash cows.

The best revenge on the Yankees and Mets and Dodgers continues to be to beat them with less expensive talent. And in fact while these legendary franchises have been less than dominant in the recent past, there has been no shortage of small-to-mid-market teams who have had post-season success including Minnesota, St. Louis, Detroit, Colorado and now Philadelphia. Superstar-laden rosters, while they probably provide a bump at the box office, are not a guarantee of success on the field. And the unique nature of baseball is that with a couple of starting pitchers, and a closer, anything is possible.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Sixers Offer Little Resistance to Celtics

The Sixers played the best team in the world last night and the results were entirely predictable. In the Tony DiLeo era, the team has beaten two bad teams, lost to a bad team, and lost to a great team. It was certainly hard to find any silver linings in Boston. Curiously, the Sixers got off to a fast start, as they have repeatedly this season. In the first quarter, Andres Miller and Iguodala were white hot, finishing off fast breaks, Iguodala above the rim and Miller with his clever below-the-rim maneuvers. But like a comet burning itself out, it was downhill from there. From then on, it was the Celtics on the run and the Sixers in slow motion. It hardly seemed to matter whether the coach was Cheeks or DiLeo, or whether Brand or Green were in the lineup or not.

Aside from the first quarter last night, the Philly offense continues to struggle for its identity. Look no further than Reggie Evans outscoring Thaddeus Young 12 to 7 and Evans accomplishing this in half as many minutes as Young. Thaddeus, who started the season well, has been floundering for weeks, reduced to a long-range shooter which he decidedly is not. Until this Sixer team figures out how to get Young involved in the offense to the tune of at least 15 points a night, they are not going to succeed.

The three-point line continues to be a nemesis for the Sixers, at both ends of the court. They shot 0-11 last night, their second consecutive shutout. Perhaps even more damaging, they allowed 7-14 shooting from the Celtics. Admittedly, Boston creates many matchup problems, but this has been a problem against other teams as well.

But make no mistake, these Celtics are at the top of their game as they make history. It's hard to see what could derail them aside from major injury.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Paterno, Utley, Temple

Joe Paterno, age 82, has had his contract extended for another three years. In the last couple of years, he coached a number of games from the press box. If Penn State could arrange for Paterno to coach from his home, he could probably continue for another 10 or 15 years. All he needs is to get over his technophobia and get comfortable with an I-Phone.


Chase Utley continues to be less than contrite regarding his famous expletive at the Phillies' championship celebration. His uplifting message to kids: yes he said a bad word but if you're 29 and just won a World Series, it's OK. Charles Barkley once famously said that athletes are not role models and should not be expected to be role models. Utley has apparently taken Barkley's words to heart. Or to put it another way - take the money and run.


Temple, after rolling over Tennessee last week, had an opportunity to strike a second major blow for Big 5 basketball against Kansas over the weekend but they came up short. This time, the Owls were on the road and Allen Fieldhouse is not user-friendly for visitors. Temple stayed within striking distance most of the way but there wasn't enough offensive balance to complement Dionte Christmas.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

DiLeo Loses First Game

Tony DiLeo was an undefeated NBA coach going into Saturday night's game against Indiana. And no doubt the Las Vegas oddsmakers figured he would stay undefeated. The Sixers were at home, they seemed to be building a little confidence in the last few games, and the Pacers were a 9-17 team. And there was more. Indiana was decimated by injury or illness with three top players out and a couple more under par. Not since Washington wintered at Valley Forge has such a rag tag team passed through the Delaware Valley. The only thing missing was the fife-and-drummer. Actually, life was less complicated for General Washington as there was no 24 second rule or three-point line back then. If Larry Bird had been in town on Saturday, no doubt he would have been activated.

So naturally the Sixers lost. This was the kind of game that is very frustrating to analyze. The home team seemed to do a lot of things right. They started the game according to script, running up a double digit lead early but of course in the NBA that means little. In the second quarter, they went flat, allowing the Pacers back in. Iguodala and Miller had strong games, with the latter notching a triple double. Dalembert had one of his best games of the year, with 14 rebounds in 36 minutes. Speights scored 12. Williams cooled down from his recent torrid pace but still was a factor offensively. In fact, a half-a-dozen Sixers scored in double figures, not a common occurrence. Only two negatives really stick out. One was a bagel from three-point land, 0-8. The other was giving up 26 points in the fourth quarter whereas in the previous two games they had held their opponent under 20 points in the final quarter. The bottom line last night was the Sixers really didn't have an answer for T.J. Ford who scored 25 and buried the winning pull-up jumper with Iguodala's hand in his face.

A four-game winning streak would have been nice, but the rubber hits the road in Boston on Tuesday night where the Sixers will take their mid-term examination.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Three in a Row for Sixers

The Sixers edged the Wizards on Friday night:

Lou Williams scored 26 points in 28 minutes, his second breakout game in a row.

Five Sixers scored in double figures.

Marreese Speights scored 17 points on 7-9 shooting.

The marginalization of Samuel Dalembert continued; he played but 11 minutes.

Perhaps most significant, for the second straight game, they held their opponent to less than 20 points in the fourth quarter.

But it's hard to assign much weight to any of these developments until they play some teams they're not supposed to beat. They are going to face that challenge this week.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Brand Injury Lets Stefanski Off the Hook

One of the ironies of the Elton Brand injury is that it muddies any attempt to compare the DiLeo era with the Cheeks era. Or is it the DiLeo/Stefanski era? If the Sixers should struggle for the next month or so, it can be excused because of Brand's absence. If they should find their groove, would it confirm they are a better team without Brand, or that they run more effectively without brand, or that DiLeo's "attention to detail" is paying off? Or would it show that minus Elton, Mo Cheeks could have built on the success that earned him two contract extensions last season? Etc, etc, etc. In any case, it probably gives Stefanski some cover for the Cheeks firing since it's so hard to make any straight-up comparison.

Quick Takes:

The Boston Celtics are looking scary good right now and are on track to be on a 19 game winning streak going into the their Christmas day matchup with the Lakers. The emergence of Rajon Rondo as a scorer as well as a defender, playmaker and yes rebounder has provided Doc Rivers with offensive and defensive balance coaches dream about.

The NBA and the NFL each have seven teams with winning percentages under .300. This makes for a lot of uncompetitive games. Clearly both leagues have too many teams and not enough quality players. If parity is truly a goal of the leagues, they have a funny way of showing it. The NBA in particular should do some soul-searching. Last year, two perennial doormats - Memphis and Minnesota - provided key players (Gasol and Garnett) to the eventual championship finalists, the Celtics and Lakers, while receiving virtually nothing in return. It may be a truism that the rich tend to get richer but this was ridiculous.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Sixers Beat Bucks: Lou Williams Breaks Out

The satisfaction of two consecutive wins for new coach Tony DiLeo was muted by the injury to Elton Brand. Some notes on the game:

In the previous game, Andre Miller had taken just a handful of shots and failed to score double figures for the first time in a while. A number of commentators remarked that this was Miller's proper role, strictly a distributor of the ball. I don't agree. Last night, Miller scored 19 including 12 in the first quarter when the rest of the Sixer offense was AWOL. Miller needs to go to the hoop to be effective. And even though he is not a high-flyer, he is one of the best finishers on the team.

The Sixer defense really stepped up in the fourth quarter, a key to the win. The Bucks were held to 15 points but we can't get too excited about this yet because this was, after all, the Bucks.

The bench contribution was enormous, shades of last season. Speights scored 12 points, mainly from just running the floor and being active. Reggie Evans is hard to explain. He gets zero points for artistry and he can't throw the ball in the ocean. But somehow he makes things happen. He's kind of like the Joe the Plumber of the Sixers. Come to think of it, given the NBA salaries, Reggie has a lot more reason to be concerned about higher taxes than the real "Joe".

And then there is Lou Williams who had a season high 25 points. Williams started out tepidly this year but for the last few weeks, his offense has been getting into gear. Lou may well be the Sixers' most talented, most creative offensive player although he probably doesn't know it. When his outside shot is working he is almost unstoppable. Based strictly on merit, he should probably be starting but he may be just as important coming off the bench in the mold of some of the classic NBA sixth men such as John Havlicek. Just so Williams gets enough minutes and is around at crunch time.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Phillies' Opening Day Lineup and Dalembert's Offense

Now that the main pieces of the Phillies' roster seem to be in place, we can make some educated guesses as to the opening day batting order. Charlie Manuel did a lot of lineup shuffling last year and that is sure to continue as the new season progresses. Mitch Williams predicts that on opening day it will look like this: Rollins, Werth, Utley, Howard, Victorino, Ibanez, Feliz, and Ruiz with Victorino inserted to prevent a lefty-lefty-lefty scenario. But Shane is really ill-suited for the 5th spot. Playing every day, Werth should be a 30 home run guy which would make him a more appropriate replacement for the slot after Ryan Howard. Admittedly, Victorino is not an ideal #2 hitter either. Ultimately it's going to come down to who's swinging the hot bat. Werth and Victorino are each coming off career years but their consistency is still in doubt.

Dee Lynam said on the air the other night that it doesn't matter if Sam Dalembert scores if he pulls in 17 rebounds (his total in the Wizards game) and blocks some shots. Well if he got 17 rebounds and 3-4 blocked shots every night, it probably wouldn't matter. But the fact is if you're almost 7 feet tall, reasonably athletic, and play 25-30 minutes, there is no reason not to score at least 10 points per game. Dalembert should have at least three dunks a night, which he could get easily just by running the floor. He should also pledge in writing - witnessed and notarized - that he will never again take a fadeaway jump shot.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Eric Bruntlett - Nice Work If You Can Get It

In 1956, Mickey Mantle of the New York Yankees won baseball's Triple Crown with 52 hrs, 130 rbi's and a .353 batting average. It was the last time a player led both leagues in each category. That year, Mantle was payed $30,000. Later in his career, Mantle's salary topped out at $100,000. Willie Mays of the Giants, Mantle's contemporary who hit more than 600 career home runs, made a similar sum. Making a very rough allowance for inflation, Mantle's 1956 salary would correlate to $150,000 today. $100,000 would correlate to between $400,000 and $500,000 in today's dollars. Mays and Mantle were widely considered the two greatest players of their generation and of course are near the top when discussing baseball's all-time greats.

The reason for this brief history lesson is to draw a contrast. Last week, utility infielder/outfielder Eric Bruntlett signed a one-year contract with the Phillies which with incentives could yield him about $1 million. Pinch-running and part-time fielding certainly have their rewards nowadays.

Sunday, December 14, 2008

The Cheeks Firing - Window Dressing 101

Mo Cheeks is one of the classiest and most likable personalities in sports in general, and in Philadelphia sports in particular, and in the best of all possible worlds he would have coached for a decade or more in the city where he made an indelible mark, and then left on his own terms.

But pro sports is big business with little place for sentiment. If a team is losing, particularly in the NBA, the ex-coaches' trap door opens wide and down the next victim slides ending up in the recyclables bin. More than a dozen NBA head coaches have been down the chute since the end of last season. Mo knows the drill and we're certainly not talking economic hardship here. Still, something is wrong with this picture.

Late last season, the Sixers were the toast of the town, a team with lots of upside and little downside - young with a sprinkle of wise veterans, athletic, loose, deep, and gaining confidence. This was an especially dangerous mix going into the playoffs and no doubt the Pistons anticipated trouble. They got that trouble but ultimately they were able to hold off the Sixers. But the Philadelphia team showed they were the real deal and there was the feeling that Cheeks' squad, not to mention the entire city, couldn't wait for the 08-09 campaign to begin. In the meantime, the coach's contract had been extended not once but twice. They began the season very tentatively but then they went on a mini-streak and got over .500 and things were looking up. But then an absolutely horrific 10 games and Mo is gone.

Now Cheeks certainly deserves plenty of responsibility for the slide. But at what point in the last 3 weeks did Mo Cheeks forget how to coach? At what point in the last 3 weeks did he lose the respect of his players? Management had enough confidence in Mo just a few months ago to extend his contract. Now they need a "new direction"? So new coach Tony DiLeo is "change you can believe in"? On Saturday night, in the win over the hapless Wizards, Bob Salmi remarked on how Dalembert was running the floor for coach DiLeo. Was Dalembert unable to run the floor for Mo? Did Cheeks tell him not to run the floor? It just doesn't add up.

Elton Brand is the only tangible difference from last year's squad and presumably his acquisition was primarily a front office decision. Clearly, a major issue has been integrating Brand with his new teammates. The difficulty of accomplishing this integration should not be underestimated and sometimes the only road map is trial and error. It may not have seemed so at the time, but obtaining a player like Brand was a huge gamble. The young Sixers were an unorthodox mix of players with an unorthodox style of play. Unless there were some behind-the-scenes issues we are not aware of, the front office should have understood that Cheeks needed more time to splice Brand into the system. Not a quarter of a season.

Most of the time, changing coaches is just window dressing. Perhaps there will be a short-term bounce. Or perhaps Tony DiLeo will turn out to be Red Auerbach and John Wooden rolled into one, but skepticism is advised. And if DiLeo fails, then what? Larry Brown will be brought back to save another franchise, just like he resurrected the Knicks and the Bobcats? Larry Brown - now that's change you can believe in.

In the meantime, if we could somehow recoup all the money the Sixers have payed to ex-coaches and ex-players, we could bail out General Motors, Chrysler and the Wachovia Center's namesake.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Sixers-Cavs, Another Ugly Loss

It's hard to say which is worth less these days, Sixer tickets or General Motors stock. Perhaps the Sixers should ask Congress for a bailout. Some notes on Friday night's ugly loss to the Cavs:

Willie Green rebounded from a poor effort with a fine shooting game ending up with 19 points, but most of it was early in the game. Unfortunately this was offset by Andre Miller who was not offensive-minded, taking only 8 shots and making 2.

Except for Thaddeus Young with 10 points, the Sixers got virtually nothing from their bench. Yes, Lou Williams was out but up until a few weeks ago, depth was considered a strong suit for this team. Now it's anything but.

Dalembert actually started strong but faded and ended up with but 6 points. Elton Brand scored 11 but on horrible shooting. Speights didn't score. There is just no consistent production from their big men.

Brand, his offensive struggles not withstanding, puts out maximum effort. But in general, the team looks lethargic. They are getting beat on the offensive boards and they are not getting enough loose balls. There is no absolutely no excuse for this.

There is also absolutely no excuse for scoring 72 points in a 48 minute NBA game.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Villanova, Outplayed for Most of Game, Edges St. Joe

The talent on the floor last night at the Pavilion won't be confused with North Carolina-Duke, but Villanova and St. Joseph's played a great Big 5 game last night. St. Joe's outplayed Nova most of the way, leading by 9 deep into the second half with excellent outside shooting from Darrin Govens and the usual strong inside presence of Ahmad Nivins. Dante Cunningham had another solid effort for the home team and Reggie Redding hit several key shots down the stretch, but Scottie Reynolds was the offensive leader throughout the game, something he was not against Texas at Madison Square Garden.

St. Joseph's played a near-perfect 30 plus minutes. They slowed the game down on offense using at least 30 seconds of the clock but were still able to get high percentage shots frequently yielding three-pointers by Govens. But you had the sense that Nova was going to be around at the end and they were as St. Joe's began turning the ball over, something they had avoided in the first half. Ball handling looks like it's going to be an issue for St. Joseph's throughout the year.

It's also apparent that after Reynolds and Cunningham, Villanova's points are going to be hard to come by. They are going to have to depend on one or two of their role players to step up from game to game. To succeed in the brutal Big East this season, this team is going to have to overachieve.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Sixers' Lineup Change No Panacea

The Sixer meltdown continues. Some notes on last night's game:

Moving Iguodala to small forward makes sense and starting Willie Green is reasonable. Iguodala had an excellent game and it is a better position for him although he has been playing very well recently anyway. The problem is that Green scored but two points and unfortunately that has been his MO throughout his career - excruciating inconsistency. You can do all the shuffling you want, if your shooting guard can't shoot you're in trouble.

The only Sixers earning their pay right now are the two Andres and of late, Lou Williams. Dalembert continues to be AWOL - last night 2 points, 2 rebounds. Elton Brand's offense was AWOL last night but to his credit, his hard work produced 10 rebounds. Thaddeus Young is in a real funk and is shooting far to many outside shots.

There are still far too many defensive breakdowns.

The Sixers shot %10 from three-point range.

Lebron James is the 8th wonder of the modern world; as a matter of fact you can throw in the ancient world as well - say, just after the Great Pyramids. If he were a foot shorter, his speed and quickness would still be blinding. Forget about the Knicks. David Stern should create a special league just for Lebron.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Villanova's First Test - Texas at the Garden

Villanova's basketball team had the opportunity to make a statement on a national level at Madison Square Garden last night against 6th ranked Texas. But that statement was muted in a ragged game dominated by aggressive, physical defense and horrible foul shooting as the Longhorns won 67-58.

The Big East is widely regarded as the strongest conference in the country from top to bottom this season with an outside chance of sending 10 of its 16 teams to the NCAA tournament. Jay Wright, not prone to exaggeration, thinks his league is the strongest the country has ever seen. Currently, 8 conference teams are in the top 25, with Nova at #12. But much of this is hypothetical, particularly for the Main Liners as their schedule has been less than imposing. Connecticut, Pittsburg, Louisville and Notre Dame are considered the league's elite with Villanova knocking at the door. Based on last night's performance, they're still knocking.

Texas has a reputation as one of the best defensive teams in the country and this was on display in the Big Apple. But Nova's defense was almost as impressive although they could not quite match Texas' brute strength. The other positive for the Main Liners can be expressed in two words, "Dante Cunningham". Dante had a 23 and 12 night while giving away size and strength. It is very unusual for a role player who has been under the radar for 3 years, to suddenly become a team's go-to guy. Especially someone as unassuming as Cunningham. But that's the end of the Nova highlight reel. The rest of the offense sputtered. Scottie Reynolds struggled mightily to get 10 points, and Corey Stokes and especially Corey Fisher were ineffectual. It goes without saying that without a major contribution from Reynolds, Villanova will have to lower its expectations.

Nova should have learned a lot last night, but for now, they're still knocking at the door.

Monday, December 8, 2008

21 Games In and the Sixer Glass is Half Empty

Here's a measure of how disappointing the Sixers' season has been to date. They are tied for last place in the Atlantic Division with the Raptors, who just fired their coach. Ahead of the Sixers in the standings are the Knicks, who are paying Stephan Marbury $21 million not to play, and the Nets, who were the consensus pick to finish in the cellar. Oh yes, and there are the Celtics who have already clinched a playoff spot. Looking at the rest of the Eastern Conference, there are only four teams with records worse than Philly, the Bobcats, Wizards, Pacers and Bucks. Complementing this on-court ineptitude has been anemic attendance at the Wachovia Center.

Perhaps the Sixers can draw inspiration from the Eagles who were given up for dead just a few weeks ago. But 21 games into this season which began with such lofty expectations, there are far more questions than answers.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Sixers-Nets: Winning Streak Ends at 1

The Sixers wasted no time in showing why it would have been premature to get overly excited about the win in Detroit on Friday, losing to the Nets on Saturday 95-84. The good news is that the Sixers played well defensively again with energy and aggressive switching but they fell victim to some excellent long-range shooting. The Nets made a number of three-pointers with a hand in their face and the shot clock winding down.

The Philly offense was another story. New Jersey played a zone and with the Sixers' lack of outside shooting, the results were about what you would expect - a 35% field goal percentage. Had Louis Williams and Donyell Marshall not combined for 26 points off the bench, it could have been really ugly. Thaddeus Young scored only 8 points in 36 minutes. The Sixers really should be pushing the ball up the floor more, particularly against a zone. It's one of the best antidotes for their lack of shooting. Why they don't is a mystery.

Lastly, there is Sam Dalembert who produced 0 points and 5 rebounds with Elton Brand again out of the lineup. Right now, Dalembert looks like he is lost at sea clinging to a life preserver. Theo Ratliff has been much more productive at center in the last few games and there have to be serious questions raised about Samuel's future with the team.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Sixers-Pistons - How Significant a Win?

There were lots of interesting angles to Friday night's win over the Pistons: Elton Brand's absence, Donyell Marshall's contribution, Lou Williams' contribution, the bench in general, the minimal role of Dalembert (not helped by early fouls), and more solid play from the two Andres. Also very encouraging were a ratcheting up of defensive intensity and but one turnover in the second half. More sobering is that the Sixers have so many moving parts right now, it's hard to project any consistency. Did coach Cheeks find some winning combinations in the Motor City, or will he have to reshuffle the deck every night? And it can't be ignored that Detroit has been a rather mediocre team since Allen Iverson joined them.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

The Importance of Andre Miller

Andre Miller, the Sixers' point guard, got off to a slow start this year. His scoring, shooting percentage and assists were all down from last year and he seemed somewhat tentative, perhaps due to uncertainty about how to integrate Elton Brand into the offense. In at least the last two games, however, there has been a change. He seemed more assertive, more aggressive. He was offensive-minded, driving as well as shooting from the outside. His shot attempts were up but so were his shooting percentage and total points - he scored well over 20 points against both the Bulls and Lakers, whereas he had only been averaging about 13 ppg prior to that.

At first blush, this might be somewhat concerning. Shouldn't Miller's priority be distributing the ball on a team with a fair amount of firepower, particularly with the addition of another proven scorer in Brand? Not necessarily. Andre recognizes that he needs to be less passive to keep the defense honest and open up the passing lanes. During last year's stretch run, Miller was also hardly shy about going hard to the hoop or taking his mid-range shot, and his team thrived. His outside stroke will never be confused with that of Kyle Korver, and Miller's range is limited, but he does have a knack for hitting it in clutch situations. Yes, he does take some ill-advised shots and occasionally forces some passes; sometimes he dribbles too much. But the vast majority of the time, he makes good decisions. If the Sixers are to get back on track this season, in his quiet way Andre Miller is going to have to provide the leadership and the grease for the Sixers' offense, both off the fast break and in the half court. He makes Iguodala, Young, Brand, and Dalembert better, not the other way around.

Sixers-Lakers - Not Ready for Prime Time

Coming off an exciting overtime win Tuesday night over the Bulls, the Sixers had a chance last night to make a statement at home against the Lakers, one of the NBA's elite. Unfortunately, the only statement they made was that they are not yet ready for prime time. This followed by less than a week a bad loss to the other half of the league's elite, the Celtics. When the Sixers lose to struggling teams like the Timberwolves and Bobcats, it is explained as a tendency to play down to the competition, but apparently the converse is not true. They have no such tendency to play up to the competition. Make no mistake. The Lakers are a very good team with a true superstar but except for a few fleeting moments, they were never seriously threatened by the home team.

Elton Brand has had a series of very solid games but last night was unquestionably his worst game of the year. He was so ineffective that it's probably not worth even analyzing his effort. Just one of those nights. But if he brings anything to the table, the game would figure to be much more competitive. The Lakers' dual seven-footers did pose match-up problems for the Sixer defense as evidenced by the 114 points allowed. But a porous Sixer defense has been a recurrent issue. Once again, there was a lack of defensive intensity and much confusion on switching.

On the positive side, the Sixers were able to generate some fast break baskets with Andre Miller, Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young running the floor. And Louis Williams shot very well from long range in the second half which is hopefully a sign of things to come. Normally, if the team scores more than 100 points, the game should at least be on the line in the last two minutes.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

What's Wrong With the Sixers? The Brand Factor

When the Sixers struggled in the first two weeks of the season, it was noted here and elsewhere that the arrival of Elton Brand may have disrupted the chemistry and style that the team had established without him in the second half of the 2007-08 schedule. Unfortunately, the ensuing four weeks have done little to alleviate those concerns. Let's hasten to add that Brand can't be blamed for this. While toiling in virtual obscurity on the left coast with one of the least distinguished franchises in pro sports for the better part of a decade, he posted impressive numbers. If nothing else, he has shown in the last 4-5 weeks that there was nothing tainted about those accomplishments. He brings an all-round game, intensity, intelligence, and good attitude. But still the Sixer gears are not meshing.

There is a frequent deer-in-the-headlights look by the team at both ends of the floor. On defense, there are late switches and general confusion. The fast break has slowed to a crawl. Players don't seem to know their roles - Andre Iguodala, Sam Dalembert and Andre Miller seem particularly bewildered. Even Thaddeus Young, who has probably been the most consistent player since opening day, has lately seemed somewhat out of sync. All of these issues might not in fact be traceable to Brand's presence. He just may be a convenient excuse. For example, the lack of defensive intensity should not be blamed on Elton. Maybe last year's run was fluke. Perhaps the rest of the league has caught up with the Sixers.

Adding a high-profile player is always a huge gamble even though on paper it seems irresistible. The Suns took such a gamble when they traded for Shaquille O'Neal and right now it looks like a disaster in progress, but admittedly Shaq is a unique case. But there is still reason to believe the Sixers can succeed with Elton Brand. Why shouldn't they be able to run with Brand? Why shouldn't their defense be even more effective with another shot blocker? The coaching staff is going to have to continue to experiment with rotations and player minutes. But right now it sure isn't going according to plan.

Monday, December 1, 2008

What's Wrong With the Sixers? Redefining Andre Iguodala

Yesterday we discussed the enigma of Samuel Dalembert. Another Sixer puzzle is how they use arguably their best player, Andre Iguodala. Iguodala is an outstanding talent who is coming off a very productive season - 20 ppg, 5 assists and 5 rebounds per game, good defender. This year, there has been much commentary about his poor shooting - his early season shooting numbers are down somewhat from last year but that is more a function of shot selection. Given his very awkward technique, it's a miracle that he shoots as well as he does. His shooting numbers last year compared quite favorably with the likes of Kobe Bryant, even from three-point land. But all that is beside the point. Sheer numbers can be deceiving. Iguodala is not a pure shooter, no matter what the stat sheet says. While Andre's field goal percentages may hold up against Bryant, or Labron or D. Wade, as an offensive force he is not at their level, no matter what the size of his new contract. Yet the Sixers and Andre seem to act as if he is. He is a multi-dimensional talent, but he is not the kind of player you build an offense around.

Let's cut to the chase. Iguodala should not be handling the ball as much as he does. His ballhandling and quickness with the ball are adequate only. He is at his best as an off-the-ball player, slashing, spotting up for jump shots, finishing off fast breaks from the wings - for those old enough, think James Worthy. A revival of the Philadelphia fast break with Thaddeus Young on the left wing and Iguodala on the right wing is tantalizing. It's true the Sixers don't have an abundance of ballhandlers. Perhaps Andre Miller should get more minutes. Perhaps Louis Williams, Willie Green or some of the other bench guys will have to elevate or cultivate this aspect of their game. Perhaps the team should go shopping. If the Sixer offense is going to get out of first gear, Mo Cheeks needs to retool the offense, particularly the half-court offense. And that includes redefining Andre Iguodala's role.

What's Wrong With the Sixers? - Let's Count the Ways

The Sixers went into the season with great expectations. After a handful of games, the early reviews described a team off to a "slow start". After another half-dozen games, it had become a "disappointing" start. Now well into a weak early-season schedule, the Sixers are three games under five hundred and they are a decidedly bad team, just coming off an ugly loss to the nondescript Chicago Bulls. The beauty of the interminable NBA schedule, if "beautiful schedule" is not an oxymoron, is that there is plenty of time to right the ship, particularly given the steep decline in quality in the Eastern Conference once you get past the Celtics, Cavaliers and Pistons. But the Sixers were one of the biggest stories in the NBA late last winter and early spring - a young, deep, exciting team with seemingly unlimited upside. What happened? There is no shortage of issues. We'll discuss some of these over the coming days, not necessarily in order of importance.

First up is the puzzle inside the mystery inside the conundrum that is Samuel Dalembert. Dalembert is coming off two reasonably productive seasons averaging about 10 points and 10 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. It's too early in the year to make too much of numbers but his production is down in all categories. Of course, much of this is due to the presence of Elton Brand, and the Brand effect on the team is a separate topic. But some of the issues surrounding Dalembert pre-date Brand.

Everyone would agree that Sammy's primary value to the team is at the defensive end. There is no question that he is a defensive presence. At his best, he can anchor the interior defense and make the rest of the team better, bailing them out when necessary. And he is an effective rebounder. The downside is that he can be slow on defensive rotations and he tends to commit silly fouls forcing him to the bench early. Someone long and athletic should not be so foul prone but this really minimizes his contribution to the team. And while Dalembert may get the rebounds, his outlet passes are not aggressive enough to ignite the Sixer fast break, so essential to the team's success late last year.

It is at the offensive end where Sammy is at his most enigmatic. He plays much too soft. If he gets the ball anywhere inside 10 feet, he should be going hard to the hoop and jamming. Too often, he opts for finger rolls or fade away jump shots. 4-5 dunks a game should be the norm. Judging by his comments, he fancies himself an outside shooter and would be content to make this the focal point of his game. It's hard to imagine that the coaching staff would concur.

Most of the difficulties Dalembert has, at both ends of the court, are probably attributable to his poor footwork - the foul trouble, his ineffective offense with his back to the basket, weak outlet passes. A few years ago, it was hoped that this was something that could be overcome with work and Samuel could provide something like what Ben Wallace brought to the table in his prime. That may have been wishful thinking.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Obama Supports Playoff

In his most significant public policy announcement to date, President-Elect Barack Obama threw his support behind a college football playoff format to replace the current BCS system. Sarah Palin, perhaps sensing a media trap, said that she wanted time to study the issue.

Presidential politics aside, the emotion that this issue arouses is mystifying. For sure, the BCS system is not without flaws. But the idea that some sort of playoff is needed to produce a "true" or "deserving" national champion is just plain silly. Any playoff is going to involve human judgment in determining brackets. All sorts of subjective criteria are going to come into play. Inevitably the common opponent will be used as a measuring stick which has been shown over many years in many sports to be highly imperfect at best.

March Madness is held out as the ideal. Yes, as spectacle the basketball tournament is terrific but the idea that it rules out any doubt as to who the best team in the country is is absurd. A team that gets hot at the right time, gets a favorable draw, plays at a site close to home and avoids injury can go deep into the tournament even it lost in the second round of its conference tournament a month earlier. In the NBA, a team can be downright mediocre all season, then get it together in the playoffs as Miami did a few years ago. The examples are endless. Is there something magical about seven game series? Would nine be a truer test? Or eleven?

If you want to tinker with the college football format fine but not with the expectation you're going produce a perfect meritocracy.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Phillies' Outfield - Review and Preview

It's a bit premature to discuss the outlook for the outfield pending the resolution of the left field situation. But here goes. The odds of Pat Burrell returning are slim. But if he is not as sought after by the American League as is generally believed, it is not inconceivable that he would be re-signed as Charlie Manuel has been very supportive of him.

If Burrell is not signed, the Phils need to acquire a right-handed hitting outfielder. Rotating three lefty hitters - Jenkins, Stairs, Dobbs - is unthinkable. In any case, the team needs additional right-sided swingers, both starting and off the bench.

Shane Victorino and Jason Werth are set in the other outfield slots. The defensive prowess of these two is one of the Phillies' enduring strengths - Shane and Jason have terrific range and strong, accurate arms, probably as good a defensive outfield combination as there is in the big leagues. Offensively, the two are coming off very solid years but they are not without issues. Victorino's playoff heroics not withstanding, he was unsuccessful in clutch situations too often in the regular season. Werth has a strikeout problem, 144 in '08 in a less-than-full season. To justify that kind of number, he needs to hit at least 30 hr next year. He also has a history of struggling against right-handed pitchers. The guess here is that both Victorino and Werth will endure extended dry spells at the plate from time to time requiring Manuel to spell them. But for the time being, all eyes are on left field.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Phillies' Infield - Review and Preview

For most of the season, Charlie Manuel platooned his catcher and third baseman. Pedro Feliz started a majority of the games at third base but Greg Dobbs received a significant number of starts against right-handed pitchers. Likewise, Carlos Ruiz started most games behind the plate but Chris Coste played often, particularly earlier in the season when he was hitting well. However, this pattern changed late in the season. Although Manuel never made any formal announcement on the subject, Feliz and Ruiz began starting virtually every game. Ruiz had a terrible year at the plate but he is an excellent defensive catcher, and when Coste's hitting went south, pencilling Carlos' name in the lineup became an easy decision. The icing on the cake was that Ruiz' hitting picked up dramatically at the end of the season and into the playoffs. Manuel's decision to play Feliz more was obviously dictated by defensive considerations - Feliz was rock solid with a Gold Glove to prove it. Pedro was erratic at the plate all year but he did manage to come through at some very opportune times.

So assuming the Phils stand pat, we are looking at an infield of Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins and Feliz next year with Bruntlett as backup. Defensively, Ruiz, Rollins, and Feliz are as good as it gets. Utley is solid if not spectacular. Howard, unfortunately, is a liability, but this is not the American League and there is no place for him to hide.

Offensively, Utley, Howard and Rollins are the team's nucleus, but in the best of all possible worlds, they would and should each hit at least 15 points higher next year. If Feliz plays almost every day, he should hit at least 20 home runs but probably not for average. Ruiz is the intriguing case. It should not be hard to improve on his .219 average of 2008 and if he can get to .260 with a bit of power, he would provide some needed juice to the bottom of the order. But more importantly, it would enable Manuel to stick with Feliz. It's difficult for any team, especially in the National League and no DH, to use two position players solely for their defense. It just takes too much pressure off opposing pitchers. If either Ruiz or Feliz don't become a more consistent threat at the plate, the Phils' manager will likely have to return to some sort of platooning scheme, or even consider a trade or acquisition.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Utley's Injury - A Silver Lining?

The confirmation that Chase Utley was indeed playing with a hip injury which will require surgery raises a couple of interesting questions.

When Utley's offensive production fell off dramatically after the All-Star break, there were rumors circulating of an injury as there seemed to be no other possible explanation, particularly with the drop in Utley's power numbers. The taciturn second baseman, of course, would offer no corroboration and to his credit, did not want to use injury as an excuse. However, for those of us watching virtually every game, it was remarkable that there were no visible signs of physical limitations. His running was unimpaired. His compact swing, the shortest stroke in baseball, looked unchanged. He still pulled almost every ball. But his strike outs were up and his power was way down.

It is impossible to gauge the effect of an injury. Certainly even a minor or nagging injury could be enough to disrupt a hitter looking at 90 mph fastballs. It could be something so subtle that even Utley himself couldn't pinpoint. However, the speculation here, and speculation is all it is, is that Utley's second half slump was due to something else - his torrid first half. Chase Utley is most effective as a 25-30 hr, .315-320 hitter, not as a 40-45 hr, .275 hitter. One can't help but think that all the long balls in April, May and June subconsciously altered Utley's swing leading up to his forgettable appearance in the home run hitting contest. Then if you layer on top of this a nagging hip injury, you have the makings of a serious hitting funk.

Utley is going to have to unlearn some bad habits in the next few months to restore his hitting to where it should be. Recovering from surgery, assuming no complications of course, could aid in this as he will, in a sense, be starting from scratch. This will be an intriguing subplot come next season.

Friday, November 21, 2008

PHILLIES BULLPEN - REVIEW AND PREVIEW

The Phillies' bullpen was the strongest and most consistent component of the team last season. Brad Lidge made them almost unbeatable after the 8th inning, and their mix of middle and late relievers gave them at least a chance to get to Lidge when the starters faltered or failed to go deep into the game. Looking ahead to 2009, the relievers may be a victim of their own success as it will be difficult to even match their accomplishments in 2008.

The pitcher who will have the most difficult comparison of course is Brad Lidge who is coming off one of the greatest closer years of all time. Can he repeat perfection? Not likely. But there is no reason to think he cannot continue to be one of the most overpowering finishers in the game for a number of years to come. It is true that late last season, Lidge had to work his way through several self-inflicted jams. But rather than be a source of concern, this highlighted his mental toughness, a closer's best friend when he doesn't have his best stuff.

The most significant development down the stretch in '08 was the emergence of Ryan Madson as the 8th inning closer. Prior to this, Madson had been frustratingly inconsistent. If this emergence carries over and proves to be the real deal, the Phils' pen could indeed become even more formidable. The only reservation here though is whether Madson has that Lidge-like toughness. One still senses that Madson's psyche is fragile and could crack under pressure. It remains to be seen if he is truly over that hump.

One large question mark is Chad Durbin. Durbin was huge in middle and long relief, appearing in 71 games. However, he faltered late. Whether this was simply due to fatigue, as many speculated, or other issues, mechanical or otherwise, remains to be seen. How this plays out in spring training and the early regular season will be key.

The Phillies are not loaded with left-handed relievers. J.C. Romero's appearances are sure to elevate your heart rate, but for two years he has been remarkably effective. Scott Eyre, who has been re-signed, pitched well but 14 innings is hardly an adequate sample size. If J.A. Happ does not make it to the starting rotation he could be useful out of the bullpen.

So the nucleus of the relief core is intact. The best guess here is that the front office will attempt to add depth to Durbin's spot and perhaps add another southpaw if at all possible.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

How Good is Wayne Ellington?

The beginning of the college hoops season is always a reason to feel good, even more important in the midst of an international economic meltdown. And the national game between Kentucky and North Carolina was particularly intriguing. The Tar Heels are ranked #1 in the pre-season and are loaded, and Kentucky is trying to return to glory in the second year under coach Billy Gillespie. Unfortunately, there was not a whole lot of suspense as Carolina controlled the game from the early minutes.

Coach Williams' team, playing without Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough, was very impressive, particularly its defensive intensity. This might have been somewhat misleading though because of the weak play by Kentucky's guards. It is surprising that a big-time program would send a team on the floor so devoid of ballhandling and backcourt quickness. Against a pressure defense like Carolina's, this bordered on the suicidal. And Roy Williams teams always seem to be able to throw wave after wave of quality players at you, even with a key injury or two.

The Tar Heels' three most publicized players are Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, and Wayne Ellington and much has been made of the fact that all three of them decided against going into the NBA draft. The main interest here is Ellington because he is a Philadelphia-area product and teamed with Duke's Gerald Henderson at Episcopal Academy to form one of the most precocious tandems in the history of Philadelphia high school basketball - multi-talented sharpshooting 6'5" swingmen with speed, quickness, strength, and vertical leap. It was a treat to watch them play together. But although they have had fine collegiate careers to date, neither has attained the superstardom that many expected. This is probably due to the caliber of major programs in Division I basketball. Duke and Carolina can recruit the best talent from around the world and their programs are so team-oriented that it's hard for any individual to stand out from the pack - although Hansbrough for one seems to be doing a pretty good job of it.

But truth be told, Ellington has been somewhat disappointing. His shot is erratic, the release is not particularly quick, and Ellington has not shown the ability to get it off under pressure - either off the dribble or catch-and-shoot. He also does not have unlimited range with his shot so the extended three-point line could impact him negatively. His ballhandling is mediocre as are his defense and rebounding. It's not a case of not being ready for the pros; it's hard to see his game ever being suited to the NBA. At this point in his NCAA career, one might characterize Ellington has a good role player on a very good team.

Gerald Henderson has some of the same issues as his former teammate but we will discuss him in more detail on another occasion.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

PHILLIES STARTING ROTATION - PART 2

So at least for the present, the rotation starts with Hamels, Myers, Moyer and Blanton. As noted last time, there are legitimate questions surrounding the reliability and/or durability of Myers, Moyer and Blanton but right now they have each earned first dibs on a regular starting spot. So the big question is the fifth starter. The internal options are Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ, taking Brad Durbin out of the bullpen, and prospects Carlos Carrasco and Drew Carpenter.

If Kendrick could return to form, he would seem to be the best of this group. He has had a full year of starting in the majors and has shown the ability to go deep into games. But as he unraveled last season, he was a control pitcher without control, a bad combination. Happ would likely be the second choice. He exhibited poise in his few outings in '08 and in terms of style, he is something of a left-handed Kendrick. Durbin raises two concerns. One is that he faltered late in the season. The other is his important spot in the bullpen would have to be filled. Carrasco and Carpenter are raw and untested.

Will the front office go outside of the organization? Management has implied that they will not go after a high-profile pitcher such as Sabbathia. But it would be shocking if they did not make a move for a second tier free agent pitcher or trade for one or more. Based on their experience with Adam Eaton and Freddy Garcia, and other notorious examples like Barry Zito, they should and likely will tread carefully.

The Phils will likely begin the '09 campaign with the four starters who get them through the post-season plus Kendrick/Happ or an outsider. But given the fragility of pitchers in general, and the baggage that most of the Phillies' starters have in particular, they had better have options 2,3 and 4 at the ready.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

MVP DEBATE - A QUANTUM OF NONSENSE

Albert Pujols has won the National League MVP award for 2008. Ryan Howard has not. Let the debate begin. The arbitrariness of the MVP award has been commented on here previously. The only real reason to even have an MVP award, as opposed to simply a Best Player award, is that it generates endless discussion in the Hot Stove League. So depending on your criteria, you can make a reasonable case for Pujols or Howard.

But now a new dimension has been added to the mix. At least one observer (sportswriter Phil Sheridan) argues that the baseball writers who vote on the MVP have not just made the wrong choice, they have sandbagged Ryan Howard's contract negotiations. Poor Ryan's agent may have to go into an arbitration hearing with the albatross of Howard being merely the runner-up to Pujols. This is real "give me liberty or give me death" material. Ryan Howard made $10 million last season and will be in line for a fat increase with or without arbitration. The possibility of his losing a couple million is truly horrifying. But perhaps there is a way to avert this impending catastrophe. In addition to his athletic prowess, Albert Pujols is admired for his community service - he won the Roberto Clemente Award this year for his charitable endeavors. When he learns of Howard's plight, Albert would surely abdicate his MVP throne in favor of Ryan. Pujols' contract is up in a couple of years and perhaps Howard can return the favor.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Phillies' Starting Rotation: Review and Preview

Baseball watchers around the country might be excused for thinking the Phillies' starting rotation in 2008 was in the tradition of the formidable pitchers of the great Yankee or Oakland Athletic dynasties. After all, the Phils steamrolled their way through the post-season with only three losses which included only two weak starting efforts, one by Myers and another by Moyer. Hamels, Blanton, Myers and Moyer were imposing if not necessarily overpowering. However, for the Delaware Valley fans who saw the first 162 games, the reality was not so simple.

Overall, the starters were in fact effective and a major part of the Philadelphia story. But there was a lot of addition and subtraction. Eaton was now you see him, now you don't. Kendrick was for a while a major producer, then he was a nonproducer and gone. Myers performed his usual high-wire act. Hamels anchored the staff and was outstanding. Moyer overachieved, again. Blanton made a major contribution. But for a team that just won the World Series, this cast of characters presents far more questions than answers going into 2009.

Start with Cole Hamels. He performed brilliantly in the playoffs and Series to go along with a solid regular season which was marred by poor run support. Barring any health issues, you should be able to pencil in at least 15 wins for Hamels. So far so good.

But then there is Myers. It seems there are many who believe that he has exorcised all his demons, both mechanical and otherwise, and from here on it's clear sailing. That seems a bit premature. He pitched well in the second half of the season, but he was bombed in two outings late in the season to go along with that bad start in the post-season. All that you can pencil in here is a question mark, although with Myers' newfound hitting prowess, he may be the solution to the left fielder issues.

Jamie Moyer continues to defy numerous rules of physics as well as the normal aging process. It seems fruitless to bet against him but every time out he seems to be engaging in his own high-wire act without a net - there's just no margin for error. Joe Blanton was solid if not flashy but he only pitched in 13 games and struggled with his control frequently so the jury is still deliberating here. Also, Moyer and Blanton rarely went more than 5-6 innings so there was usually pressure on the middle relievers.

So how should the Phils structure their staff going into next season? Wholesale changes or minor tweaking?

Friday, November 14, 2008

Larry Brown Watch

The Charlotte Bobcats are off to a 2-5 start. Off course, it's far too early to draw any conclusions from this. But it will be interesting to chart the team's progress because of the arrival of Larry Brown as head coach. It has been noted here before that while Brown has left at least four NBA franchises - New Jersey, Indiana, Philadelphia, and New York - in shambles, not to mention one olympic team, his name is at or near the top of every list when a coaching vacancy surfaces whether it be the pros, the collegiate ranks, or the 3rd graders at P.S. 189. Brown is the ultimate "teacher" we're told, the guru of the hardwood. One pictures Coach Brown sitting in the lotus position on a Himalayan peak where general managers come calling. The GM's are accompanied by sherpas carrying sacks of money to entice the coach to come down from the mountain just once more to lead their struggling teams to the promised land. Making the playoffs in the mediocre Eastern Conference should not be an impossible dream for a Hall of Fame coach. But whether he succeeds, or presides over another implosion, count on Brown's reputation to remain unsullied.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Elton Brand and the Sixers - A Cautionary Tale for the Phillies

The early struggles of the Sixers may offer some lessons for the Phillies as they consider roster changes over the next few months. First a few caveats. Basketball is very different from baseball - integrating a new player is certainly not as complicated in the latter. Furthermore, the difficulties the Sixers are having incorporating Elton Brand into the offense may well be ironed out over time. But there are still issues worth considering.

Elton Brand is a blue chip player with impeccable credentials - scorer, rebounder, intelligent, good attitude, defender. The only question might be his multiple injuries in recent years although he seems fine at the present. However, his arrival in Philadelphia has required the home team to move Andre Iguodala, probably their highest profile player, to another position in which he is obviously uncomfortable. Brand's presence has slowed down the Sixers' running game which was so important in last year's playoff run. Brand plays with his back to the basket and requires the ball a lot which is causing stagnation and confusion among the other players. Even the team defense seems to be tentative. Again, this could just be normal growing pains and the Sixers could be a stronger team in a couple of months, better equipped to make a deep playoff run. But one wonders of Philadelphia's management considered all of the implications of the deal.

How does this relate to the Phillies? They have a number of personnel decisions to make. Some of these will be determined by the business of baseball, free agency, etc. But there's always that pressure to not just stand there but do something. The left field situation is the most obvious example. Whether Pat Burrell stays or not may be out of the Phils' hands if he gets a large offer from an American League team. But to contemplate replacing him with Manny Ramirez, which reportedly Charlie Manuel favors, is extremely risky. Burrell is loaded with liabilities. He is a mediocre to poor fielder, poor baserunner, strikes out too much. He has two assets. He has power at the plate which can only be realized if the pitcher makes a mistake. Ramirez can do things with the bat that Burrell, and most others, can only dream about. But Burrell's second asset is he is a team-oriented guy, and that is something Manny can only dream about. It should also be added that Ramirez is the only left fielder who makes Pat Burrell look like a Gold Glover.

This is not to argue that the Phils should make a full court press to resign Burrell. Adding a competent right-handed batter to platoon with their lefty swingers in left field might well be an upgrade. But one of the Phillies' unsung heroes in their championship run was chemistry which could be destabilized by a volatile entity like Manny Ramirez.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Allen Iverson, Always A Lightning Rod

Controversy has always shadowed Allen Iverson. During his tenure with the Sixers, it seemed he was either loved or hated, with no middle ground. For his fans, he employed his considerable offensive skills and maximum intensity every night in pursuit of wins. For his detractors, he shot too much, dribbled too much, and took too many chances on defense. The reality, of course, is more complicated. Iverson is hugely gifted. He is one of the fastest and quickest, with and without the ball, to play the game. He is one of the best finishers, maybe THE best, among little men and his effort is never in question. But he is not easy to coach or play with because he needs the ball so much and because his small stature creates match-up issues on defense in the NBA. Iverson has also been portrayed, justly or unjustly, as a complicated personality which brings a soap opera element wherever he goes. When joined with the equally complicated personna of coach Larry Brown for several years, the Sigmund Freud Society couldn't believe its good fortune.

So the surprising, fascinating trade of Iverson to the Detroit Pistons for Chauncey Billups last week invites us to revisit some of these issues. Supporters of the trade emphasize the practical, longer term benefits of the deal for the Pistons. Iverson is in the last year of a big money deal. Billups had a few years to run on his contract, also for big money. So after this season, Iverson can test the free agent market, and Detroit has a windfall to splurge on one or more free agents, if it chooses not to make a serious move to resign Iverson. In the meantime, they have rented one of the most exciting players in the game not far past his prime.

But strictly in a basketball sense, the transaction seems rather puzzling for the Pistons. They have been one of the most consistent teams in the East for almost a decade with a solid, if aging, nucleus and a couple of impressive young players. Their offense has been notable for its balance with the high scorer changing from night to night. And until the recent ascendance of the Celtics, Detroit's team defense was probably unsurpassed in the East. It's hard to see how Iverson can upgrade any of these areas. At the age of 33, he certainly doesn't bring youth to the equation. And in a word association exercise, neither "team offense" nor "team defense" spring immediately to mind after "Iverson, Allen".

Yet the one constant about Iverson has been his unpredictability. His stats last year with Denver were pretty much in line with his career numbers but with Wallace, Prince, and Hamilton, Detroit is probably not looking for 27-30 ppg from Iverson. But he has said time and again that he can and will do anything it takes to win so this will be his opportunity to prove it. But the window of opportunity for the Georgetown graduate is closing fast; this may be the last chance to make his case. It will be an interesting experiment.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Utley's Gaffe

Chase Utley has been known for his reticence during his tenure with the Phillies. Now we begin to know why. Apparently the UCLA curriculum does not emphasize vocabulary development because Utley seems to be limited to articles, pronouns and a familiar Anglo-Saxon expletive. Utley's remark was boorish, tasteless, offensive, insulting, and demeaning. What on earth was he thinking?

Professional athletes are among the most favored in our society. They are compensated obscenely to play games the rest of us would engage in for nothing. They are feted and fawned over. Jason Werth recently remarked it was a long time since he had to pick up a tab in Philadelphia. Warren Buffett and Bill Gates would surely trade places with Chase Utley or Pat Burrell in a heartbeat. What do we ask in return? Not Albert Schweitzer or Mother Theresa, just a modicum of propriety. Instead we get crudity in the afternoon in front of adoring millions. Does a 30 year-old college educated multimillionaire need a crash course in etiquette - Amy Vanderbilt for Second Basemen 101?

You will remember that over the summer Jimmy Rollins was raked over the coals for making a fairly innocuous remark on late-night television about Philly fans being "front-runners". It was clear that Rollins didn't mean it to come out the way it did. But he was taken to task and was booed for weeks. Now comes the Chase Utley embroglio and Utley's backers are rushing to his defense as if he were a Christian martyr. Utley's remark was "cool" and "genuine" and "real". Or that this was Utley's way of coming out of his protective shell, assertiveness training on the fly. Oh now I get it. So this all about Chase's path of personal development. No doubt he will get a standing ovation in his next plate appearance to reward the courage it must have taken to overcome his shy, introverted personality. We can eagerly anticipate the next milestone in Utley's journey of personal discovery.

The only thing uglier than Utley's remark are these feeble, pathetic attempts to justify, even celebrate it. Is this the price we have to pay for a world championhip?

Friday, October 31, 2008

Post-Series/Pre-Parade Notes; Utley, Dobbs, Ruiz

Some food for thought in the Series aftermath:

Yesterday I commented on Chase Utley's outstanding play in Game 5 when he threw out Jason Bartlett at the plate. It should be added that Utley played outstanding defense throughout the post-season. This is especially noteworthy because Utley's defense throughout the regular season was only average. His throwing was spotty, particularly when turning double plays, and his range has never been exceptional. In the playoffs, he elevated this part of his game. Utley's hitting in the post-season was inconsistent, as it had been been throughout the second half of the season. But with his solid defense, a few timely hits, knack for getting on base, and intelligent base running, his contribution was enormous.

The World Series victory must be somewhat bittersweet for Greg Dobbs. He seems to be a solid team guy, but to have played in only part of one Series game has to be frustrating. Charlie Manuel seems to have made a decision to go with Pedro Feliz on a near everyday basis. Dobbs, the Phillies' best contact hitter, is all dressed up with no place to go. Of course, it is no secret that Dobbs has been mentioned as a replacement for Pat Burrell next year. But Manuel has shown no inclination to use Dobbs against left-handed pitching. Burrell was an everyday player. It's going to be interesting to see how this evolves in the off season.

Carlos Ruiz had an excellent post-season. He always gets high marks for handling pitchers and blocking pitches, but it should be noted that he made a number of bad throws, including a number that he should have not made at all. However, most surprising to all of us was his hitting. This .219 regular season batter was one of club's best playoff hitters. If this new found prowess proves not to be an aberration, it has major implications for next season.

You have to love the Philly fans for advancing booing to an art form. They even delivered the Bronx cheer to the Chevy Impala given to Cole Hamels for winning the MVP. But don't the marketing honchos think it's just a little bit tacky to give a car to a rich ballplayer in an economy where many are struggling. Talk about bad timing.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Post-Series Comments: Utley, Jenkins, Burrell, Lidge

The Phillies' World Series win is very emotionally satisfying: for all of us fans who have ridden the ups and downs; for the home-grown players like Utley, Howard, Rollins, Myers, Hamels, Burrell, etc; for Charlie Manuel and Brad Lidge, etc. Some notes on last night's game:

It was poetic justice for Burrell and Jenkins to have key hits last night. Jenkins has been odd man out for months, but he never seemed to lose his enthusiasm, and was ready on the rare occasions when he was called upon. Burrell in likely his last Phillie at bat redeemed himself for the umpteenth time. An aside: It was curious that Manuel didn't pinch run for Jenkins although Geoff was able to score easily on Werth's bloop hit.

Utley made a remarkable play in the 7th inning to throw out Bartlett at the plate. The play didn't require anything exceptional physically but for Utley to recognize in an instant that he couldn't get the runner at first and to throw home instead showed remarkable presence of mind. The importance of the play cannot be overemphasized. It was another reminder of how significant a role the Phillies' defense played in their championship season.

It was fitting that Brad Lidge closed it out. Lidge was the one constant for the Phils all season. With the offense sputtering for a good part of the year, he enabled his team to win a lot of close games that they would not have won otherwise. You can talk about Hamels, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Victorino - Lidge was the Phils' MVP.

The Phillies were 11-3 in the post-season. That sounds dominating but the fact is that most of their victories were nailbiters, a pattern we saw throughout the 2008 campaign.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

World Series TV Review

With live baseball action on hold, here are some comments on the Fox TV coverage:

Joe Buck and Tim McCarver have been doing this for a long time and there was a time they were first rate. But no longer. The nicest adjective I can think of to describe their performance is soporofic. Buck's enthusiam for the game used to come through loud and clear, now he seems to be going through the motions. McCarver used to be interesting. Now he seems to struggle to stay awake and offers the same banal observations over and over again. They also have shown themselves to be true blue company men. When the game continued the other night despite the British Open conditions, they were critical, but not of Fox TV which pays their considerable salaries and which surely had a major role in the cynical decision to play the game.

There has been justifiable criticism of the umpiring. One of the more controversial plays involved Evan Longoria seeming to tag out Jimmy Rollins at third base but Rollins was called safe. Fox showed a replay that seemed to show Longoria touching Rollins. Joe Buck proclaimed that Rollins was clearly out based on this and there seems to be a consensus now that Jimmy was tagged. But the replay was not definitive. Yes it appeared there was a tag but the replay angle could have been deceiving. I'm not saying that Rollins was safe, only that the replay was not decisive, yet Buck acted as if it was.

The practice of interviewing managers and coaches in the dugout during the games, not exclusive to Fox, is contrived and pointless, even insipid. Meatball questions are served up and the answers are as predictable as night following day. Why not have the on field reporter walk to the mound and interview the pitcher between batters? The practice of wiring a player with a microphone during the game is another contrivance. The broadcast should stick to what it does best - showing great video and letting the action speak for itself.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Phils-Rays Game 5

The excitement of being on the doorstep of a world championship season is in danger of being overshadowed by a comedy of errors by baseball's hierarchy:

Last night's game should not have been played. The conditions were appalling such that the quality of play was severely compromised and there was significantly heightened risk of player injuries. Early in the game, Joe Buck described a heavy mist while one could clearly see on the TV screen a driving rain. Obviously he has a different conception of "mist" than most.

Baseball is quite unique in that starting pitchers are very fragile. Once they warm up and start pitching, they are pretty much at a point of no return, particularly in cold weather. They cannot survive long delays or suspensions. Now the Phillies' ace and a top starter for the Rays are lost for the series, except for a possible relief role if the series is extended. This alone could taint the outcome of this World Series.

Although it is old news, it is worth mentioning that the use of the DH in some games and not others is absurd. Having two sets of rules in a championship series devalues the competition.

The regular starting time of the games is too late and the Saturday night start at 10 PM was worse. MLB seems to be making every effort to make its showcase event inaccessible to children.

The poor caliber of umpiring has been much discussed. There have been blown calls in virtually every game. However, last night's balls-and-strikes calls by home plate umpire Jeff Kellogg were off the charts. And truth be told, this time around, the Phillies were the prime beneficiaries. Kellogg's bizarre calls, more than Phils' bats, drove Matt Kazmir from the game.

Getting back to actual baseball for a moment. Carlos Pena's single drove in B.J. Upton from second base in the top of the 6th inning to tie last night's game. Upton is one of the few players in baseball who could have scored on the play. The base paths were muddy and slick but Upton runs with such an effortless, loping style, he was able to navigate his way around third without sacrificing much speed and thus was able to beat Pat Burrell's excellent throw.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Phils-Rays Games 3 and 4

Notes on Game 3:

A couple of points about Ruiz's winning swinging bunt. Although Carlos Ruiz has been swinging a good bat, he has been a double play machine all year and letting him swing away with the base loaded was a roll of the dice. A safety squeeze would have been the prudent play. The swinging bunt was successful because it replicated a safety squeeze, but it was very fortuitous. On the other side of the play, Evan Longorian has been second-guessed by some for not giving the ball a chance to roll foul. But I think this is unreasonable. Given the circumstances and the bang-bang nature of the play, the third baseman reacted the way most everyone else would have in a similar situation.

Notes on Game 4:

Pat Burrell was up with two men on in the 7th inning. Burrell is hitless in the Series and has shown no signs of breaking out of it. Dobbs, Stairs, and Jenkins were available to pinch hit. Burrell was soon to be taken out of the game for defensive purposes. Manuel should have pinch hit for Burrell. At that point, the Rays were still in the game and the Phils had an opportunity to blow it open. Manuel's loyalty to Burrell and a few other players can be admirable at times. But at other times it is downright foolish.

The Phillies struck out 4 times last night, an atypically low number. Half of those strike outs were by Chase Utley who was hitless. Utley has come up with key hits throughout the playoffs and has played solid defensively. But he is still not hitting the way we have come to expect. And he is not the type of hitter who should be striking out as frequently as he is. The Rays struck out 12 times last night. You would have to search far and wide to find another game this year where the opposition struck 3 times as many as the Phils.

Chad Durbin continues to struggle but fortunately he has not been needed in critical situations. J.C. Romero, on the other hand, has been rock solid; his sometimes wayward control has not been in evidence.

The Rays offense has been a study in futility. The ineptitude of Longorian and Pena, in particular, has been well documented. It would be satisfying to conclude that this is all due to dominant Phillie pitching or, as been reported, brilliant scouting reports. But it is likely that a large part of it is slumpingTampa Bay bats. This may continue but it would be wise for the home team to fight complacency.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Phils-Rays Game 2

Notes on Game 2:

The wish was expressed here a few days ago that Jimmy Rollins would get on base consistently in this series. Well Jimmy produced his second consecutive 0-5 game last night. When a leadoff hitter goes 0-5, you are automatically behind the 8 ball. Now World Series history is replete with good hitters who slumped in the Fall Classic. The Rays have a few of their own. It happens. But in Rollins' case this has happened all too frequently throughout the regular season and playoffs. The usual explanations - overanxious, swinging at bad pitches, bad mechanics - are tiresome. He is not getting the job done. Period.

Of course Rollins is not alone. Last night, Rollins, Utley, Burrell and Werth combined for 1-17. You have to wonder what's going on when your most consistent hitters are Carlos Ruiz and Brett Myers.

Speaking of Myers, he was hardly lights out last night, but he pitched well enough to win. The one silver lining from last night was that Myers showed he can contain the Rays.

Greg Dobbs looked like a deer in the headlights when he struck out in his first two at bats, each time with men in scoring position. He is the team's best contact hitter and you would have wanted no one else to be hitting in those situations. But in fairness, it has to be difficult for Dobbs to find a comfort zone, particularly in his first World Series appearance, when he is getting so few at bats.

In the 4th inning, the Rays had runners at 1st and 3rd with one out and 9th hitter Jason Bartlett at the plate. Manager Joe Maddon called for a suicide squeeze but Bartlett fouled it off. But on the next pitch, the squeeze was on again, this time the safety squeeze. The Phils were caught flat-footed and a very important fourth run scored. This was a very clever managerial move and something I don't think Charlie Manuel would do. A more general criticism I have of Manuel is that he too often plays for a big inning rather than a run or two.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Phils-Rays Game 1

Notes on Game 1:

Last night's game was a microcosm of the Phillies' season. The announcers expressed amazement over the 11 men left on base after 6 innings. But this was standard procedure throughout the year. It was very common for the Phils to score early and subsequently squander numerous opportunities to blow a game open. Then it became a question of whether the pitching could hold on, or more specifically. if they could hold on for Brad Lidge. The one difference now, and it is a major one, is that Ryan Madson makes holding on a lot easier.

Likewise, there is no reason to be shocked at the futility of Rollins, Howard and Burrell. This futility has been on display off and on throughout the season, in some cases for months at a time. That the Phillies were able to be win the National League championship with the inconsistent offensive output of this threesome is what is remarkable.

Right now Ryan Howard is reprising his performance of the first part of the regular season. He is combining anemic hitting and sloppy fielding. To put it bluntly, he is a liability. You play him of course with the expection that one day he will explode, kind of like what many of us are doing with the stock market these days, and so far that hasn't exactly been a winning strategy. Would Manuel at least consider DHing Howard? Not likely.

Pedro Feliz was a quiet star last night. Impeccable defense and a couple of intelligent at bats.

The Phillies' defense has been a key to their success and it is probably underappreciated. Outside of Ryan Howard, and with Feliz and Ruize in the lineup, it is rock solid. Yes, Pat Burrell has limitations, but he doesn't make a lot of mistakes. And to Jimmy Rollins' credit, he hasn't let his hitting struggles influence his glove work.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Series: A Phillies Wish List

The cold hard truth is that the American League is stronger than the National League and Tampa Bay showed themselves to be their league's best, so the Phils have their work cut out for them. On paper, the Rays probably are even or have the edge in every facet of the game, with the possible exception of the bullpen. The concern about the long layoff hurting the Phils is silly. The hitters can't cool off any more than they already have - Rollins and Howard combined for 5 for 33 against the Dodgers. For the National League Champions to have a fighting chance, they're going to have to elevate their game, and keep it there:

Jimmy Rollins needs to get on base (home runs are acceptable) at least twice a game, preferably when he's leading off which makes his first at bat particularly important. If and when he gets on, he needs to run the base paths aggressively.

Rollins, Howard, Burrell and Werth must try to go the other way at the plate. We all know the drill. When these guys try to pull everything, and you can throw in a few other names as well, they hit miserably. They know it, the coaches and fans know it, and it is constantly talked about, and yet they still don't execute it for more than a few games at a time. They got away with it against weaker competition. Against the mighty American League, I don't think they can.

It goes without saying that the Phillies will be looking for at least 5-6 quality innings from their starters. What team doesn't? Since it's not likely they will achieve this in every game, the effectiveness of Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre, and even J.A. Happ could loom large. Durbin, whose role was critical throughout most of the year, has struggled in recent weeks and this would be a good time for him to get his second wind.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is not going to be easy.

Monday, October 20, 2008

What's Not To Like About These Phillies?

This year's addition of the Phillies will not go down in baseball history with the various Yankee dynasties or the Big Red Machine. And that's part of their appeal. With the exception of Brad Lidge and Cole Hamels, even their highest profile players - Rollins, Utley and Howard - had spotty seasons. But they were able to mix and match from enough ingredients to manufacture a successful year. Some good defense here, some good base running there, a little starting pitching here, a little power hitting there, and a heaping of solid relief pitching. Perhaps most important of all is an undeniable chemistry. Yes the Phils have stars, but they're not the overbearing hired guns like Ramirez or Clemens. They are home grown players who have checked their egos at the door and kept their eye on the prize. They're probably not as talented as Tampa Bay but that's only a minor impediment for this team. So let's enjoy the ride while we can because unfortunately good chemistry in professional sports is an increasingly ephemeral commodity.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Pre-Series Notes

Phillies Notes:

One interesting subject of speculation is how the brain trust will work the DH in the American League park. Against right-handed pitching, one strategy would be to start Gregg Dobbs at third and use Matt Stairs as the DH. Of course, if Charlie Manuel decides to start Pedro Feliz, which he tends to do, Dobbs would surely be the DH. Another option is to put Dobbs in left field, with Burrell as DH. A real long shot would be to use Ryan Howard as DH with Dobbs playing first. But against left-handed pitching, things really get interesting, and not for the better. The Phils have a dearth of right-handed hitting threats on the bench. Chris Coste doesn't add much punch as a DH plus you would sacrifice room for maneuver at the catching position late in the game. Do you start So Taguchi in left and DH Pat Burrell? You could go on and on but the bottom line is that there is no dream ticket here. The Stairs/Dobbs option against right-handers is certainly the most potent offensively.

The potential role of Jamie Moyer in the Series is a sensitive one. Manuel implied a few days ago that if the Dodger series had gone 7 games, there was no guarantee that Moyer, due up in the rotation but coming off a bad outing, would start. The coaching staff is indicating now that Moyer will pitch in the third game of the Series but one wonders if that's a lock, especially if the Phils were two games down. This is an emotional time for Moyer, his first time in a World Series after more than 20 years in the big leagues. He was a major contributor in the regular season but legitimate questions have been raised about his reliability at this stage of the long season. It would be heartbreaking if he were taken out of the rotation now.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Phils-Dodgers Game 5

Notes on Game 5:

Charlie Manuel again opted to start Pedro Feliz instead of Gregg Dobbs against a right-handed pitcher. Feliz played his usual excellent defense but at the plate he left 8 men on base. Yes the Phils won thanks to excellent pitching but at same point those lost runs will come back to haunt you.

Even if Tampa Bay wins tonight the World Series won't start until next Wednesday. That's too long a wait even if does mean Cole Hamels will be well rested and ready to start the Series. It's all about television of course and that's what pays the bills.

In the 7th inning, Hamels walked two men on and was facing Jeff Kent. Charlie Manuel came out to the mound but surprisingly let Hamels keeping pitching. Hamels got Kent looking at a pitch called strike 3 by umpire Mike Winters. But on TV the pitch appeared clearly to be low. The game could have changed dramatically if the call went the other way but human error is still part of the game and that's OK.

The Fox announcers speculated that Manny Ramirez might elicit some interest from the Phillies to replace Pat Burrell. When Manny steps in the batter's box he becomes the 8th Wonder of the World but the Phils would be foolish to even consider it. Ramirez just carries too much baggage. The Phillies have excellent team chemistry which will be severely tested in the post-season as it is with many players on the last year of their contracts. Manny is just too much of a destabilizing agent to risk adding him to the Phils' clubhouse.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The Great Strikeout Debate - Conclusion

Early this season, Ryan Howard was arguably a liability to the Phillies. He was striking out in bunches, topping out at .200 with his batting average, and making too many mistakes in the field. 6-8 weeks into the season, his power production began to improve, and his BA had moved into the low .200's, but the strikeouts were still very much in evidence. He was winning some games with his bat but he was also killing rallies. Then came late August and September and it was 2006 all over again. Now the home runs and RBI's were coming in bunches. Strikeouts were down modestly but there were more quality at bats and Howard was hitting for average.

Unfortunately, in the playoffs Ryan is reprising his spring performance. So which is the real Ryan Howard? In September, when the Phils were playing their best ball of the season, Howard was hitting for average even with numerous strikeouts. He was winning many games with his bat. 200 strikeouts with a .260-.270 average are one thing. With a .220 average, they're something else. Howard will never be a Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols, or Manny Ramirez - power hitters who make consistent contact. But for those strikeout numbers to be acceptable, he needs to get that BA up. Maybe not as high as in his surreal MVP season, but up just the same.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Phils-Dodgers Game 4

Notes on Game 4:

The swing Matt Stairs put on his home run was so picture perfect it should be used in hitting instructional videos. It was as smooth as Babe Ruth's swing in the old newsreels.

Carlos Ruiz has been one of the unsung heros of the playoffs. His defense is a given but he has had a number of timely hits including two last night. This doesn't mean he's suddenly become good hitter but short series sure do produce plenty of surprises.

Jimmy Rollins is struggling mightily again at the plate. I say again because he has endured numerous dry patches this year. He is obviously pressing but his fielding hasn't suffered. He anchors the infield and continues to make all the plays he should and most of the plays he shouldn't.

Charlie Manuel made a bizarre decision in the top of the 6th inning. With first and second and no out, he had Shane Victorino bunt the runners over. Not letting Shane hit was somewhat questionable but the bizarre part came next. With Gregg Dobbs up next, and a lefty throwing, Manuel pinch hit with Pedro Felice. Of course, Joe Torre countered with a right-hander. It's a contact situation and your best contact hitter (Dobbs) is due up and you pinch hit with someone prone to the strike out. It turned out not to be pivotal but very hard to figure just the same.

Victorino's home run was the best kind of payback for his displeasure over being targeted by Dodger pitchers the night before - far better than any form of retaliation or fisticuffs.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Phils-Dodgers Game 3

Notes on Game 3:

The Phillies' hitting woes continue. When their starting pitcher implodes, as Moyer did last night, the chances of coming back from a big deficit are slim. They had a few opportunities to rally, but failed to produce clutch hits, something we have seen over and over this year. In the regular season, the Phils had a team batting average of .255, one of the lowest in the majors. In the current series, their team batting average is ------- .255. In 2007, the team batting average was .274. Quite a drop off. Statistics can be very telling. They didn't hit well in the Milwaukee playoff series either. It's remarkable they have been as successful as they have. If you take away Brett Myers' post-season hitting prowess, the Phillies could have their backs to the wall. At this point, would Charlie Manuel consider benching Jason Werth for a left-handed batter? It's hard to overestimate the importance of base running to the Phils' offense this year but when Rollins and Werth don't get in base, that advantage disappears.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Phils-Dodgers Game 2

Notes on Game 2:

1. Brett Myers' hitting won the game although if he had pitched better, his hitting might not have been needed. Most everyone is finding it to be a delicious irony that such a historically inept hitter as Myers is causing havoc with his bat. However, in the last week or two of the regular season, Myers had a couple of hits including one long double to center. He seemed to approach each plate appearance with the intention of swinging aggressively, particularly on the first pitch, when he is most likely to see a hittable pitch. It's surprising more National League pitchers don't try this. In the meantime, the Phillies who are paid to hit continue to underperform to say the least.

2. Gregg Dobbs, who has seen little action in the playoffs, provided instant offense, but he also mishandled a ground ball at third, although it was not a routine play. Charlie Manuel has a real dilemma in dividing up playing time between Dobbs and Felice. Dobbs may be the best contact hitter the Phillies have and as important as he is as a pinch hitter, the Phils have often struggled with their offense early in many games. A way should be found to get Dobbs more at bats.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Phils-Dodgers Game I

Notes On Game One:

1. The Phils' victory last night was the result of a formula they employed all year - a strong 7 innings from their starter, excellent relief pitching, a couple of timely hits, and the speed of Shane Victorino. There was also some good fortune the Phillies were able to capitalize on: Ramirez just missing a home run in the first inning and the error allowing Victorino to reach base in front of Chase Utley. There was irony too, as Pat Burrell noted, in that the homers of Utley and Burrell probably would not have been out of the park in Dodger Stadium, whereas Manny's shot probably would have.

2. The most important development for the Phillies in recent weeks has been the emergence of Ryan Madson. Last night's performance in a pressure situation can only boost his confidence further. With Madson and Lidge, the Phils can really shorten a game for their starter.

3. Tim McCarver and Joe Buck talked about how the Phils' 1-6 hitters have carried the team. Well, only in the sense that at different times during the season, one or two of these hitters have carried the team. But certainly not in unison. For lengthy intervals, Rollins, Werth, Burrell, Utley, Howard, and Victorino have virtually disappeared. Buck added that the Phillies have been weighed down offensively by the bottom of the line up. Hardly a surprise as two of those hitters (Felice and Ruiz) are in the lineup primarily for their defense.

4. Ken Rosenthal, the Fox baseball analyst, picked the Dodgers to win the series but after last night's game he says the Phillies could win. That's like a stock market analyst, if anyone is willing to admit that these days, saying stocks could continue to go down but they could also go up.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

The Great Strikeout Debate, Part II

So how do Ryan Howard's 199 strikeouts compare with power hitters from the past. Baseball has changed dramatically over the past century but it's still interesting to go back to the early days.

In 1923, Babe Ruth hit almost 50 home runs with 93 SO and batted, get this, .393.

In the next generation in 1949, Ted Williams struck out 48 times with 43 hr, 159 rbi's and a .343 BA. Williams never struck out more than 64 times in any season. The numbers of Ruth and Williams are really other-worldly.

In 1956, Mickey Mantle won the Triple Crown with 52 HR and 126 SO.

In Roger Maris' historic 1961 season when he broke Ruth's record with 61 HR, Maris struck out only 67 times.

In 1962, Harmon Killebrew hit 48 HR with 142 SO.

In 1977, George Foster hit 52 HR with 107 SO.

In 1993, Barry Bonds, presumably pre-steroidal, hit 46 HR with 79 SO. When Bonds hit 73 HR in 2001, he struck out 93 times. Apparently steroids don't reduce strikeouts.

In Mark McGwire's second season, he hit 49 HR with 131 SO. In this 70 HR year in 1998, he struck out 155 times. Apparently performance-enhancing supplements don't reduce strikeouts either.

So while there has been an uneven upward trend in strikeouts over the decades, the numbers put up by Howard and a few others in the last few years mark a significant jump. But consider: Howard himself had three teammates exceed 100 SO - Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, and Jason Werth. For a player like Utley, a line drive hitter with a compact swing, to strike out this many times, unless the rumors of a mysterious injury are accurate, is telling. Werth struck out 119 times with about one-third less the at bats than Howard, so the right-fielder's strike out rate was in Howard territory. And the Phillies only ranked in the middle of the National League in total strikeouts. The Florida Marlins had six players with over 100 SO with Dan Uggla topping out at 171. The approach to hitting a baseball indeed has changed.

NEXT TIME: Conclusions.