One of the puzzles of the 2008 season was the precipitous decline in the offensive production of the Phillies' catching core of Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste. Ruiz, who by year end had won the everyday job, hit .219 in 320 at-bats. Coste hit .263 in 274 at-bats. This was in stark contrast to 2007, when Ruiz hit .259 in 374 a-bats and Coste .279 in 129 at-bats. And Coste hit .328 in almost 200 at-bats in '06. So last year's decline is hard to ignore and even harder to explain. Particularly painful - together, the two catchers hit into 24 double plays in '08; that's a whole lot of rally killers.
Coste's drop off was particularly striking as he hit only .239 after the All Star break last year - this from a player who had contributed many clutch hits in the previous two years and had become something of a folk hero. Now his place on the roster seems to be in jeapardy as he competes with the newly acquired Ronny Paulino. The latter's resume is not overwhelming as he spent most of last season in the minors but prior to that he did have two respectable hitting seasons with the Pirates.
Ruiz did show signs of life last year. After the All Star break, he hit .244 and he was an offensive star in the playoffs so it will be most interesting to see which version of the man from Panama emerges this year. No less an authority than Chris Coste believes the late-blooming bat of Ruiz was the real McCoy.
So why does this matter? Is a good-hitting catcher a necessity? The Phils did after all win the world championship. Yes, but to do that a lot of stars had to line up in the South Philly sky - Can Brad Lidge be perfect for the duration of the Obama administration? Can Ryan Howard hit 100 home runs every September? Can Ryan Madson find another 5 mph on his fastball? Look at some of the catchers in the rest of the division - Brian McCann of the Braves, John Baker of the Marlins, Brian Schneider of the Mets - and you find solid hitters with power. Carlos Ruiz may be an excellent defensive catcher but if the Phillies are going to make a run as perennial contenders, it would sure help if he could raise his average 30 points or so.
Showing posts with label Philadelphia Phillies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Philadelphia Phillies. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Phillies' Outfield - Review and Preview
It's a bit premature to discuss the outlook for the outfield pending the resolution of the left field situation. But here goes. The odds of Pat Burrell returning are slim. But if he is not as sought after by the American League as is generally believed, it is not inconceivable that he would be re-signed as Charlie Manuel has been very supportive of him.
If Burrell is not signed, the Phils need to acquire a right-handed hitting outfielder. Rotating three lefty hitters - Jenkins, Stairs, Dobbs - is unthinkable. In any case, the team needs additional right-sided swingers, both starting and off the bench.
Shane Victorino and Jason Werth are set in the other outfield slots. The defensive prowess of these two is one of the Phillies' enduring strengths - Shane and Jason have terrific range and strong, accurate arms, probably as good a defensive outfield combination as there is in the big leagues. Offensively, the two are coming off very solid years but they are not without issues. Victorino's playoff heroics not withstanding, he was unsuccessful in clutch situations too often in the regular season. Werth has a strikeout problem, 144 in '08 in a less-than-full season. To justify that kind of number, he needs to hit at least 30 hr next year. He also has a history of struggling against right-handed pitchers. The guess here is that both Victorino and Werth will endure extended dry spells at the plate from time to time requiring Manuel to spell them. But for the time being, all eyes are on left field.
If Burrell is not signed, the Phils need to acquire a right-handed hitting outfielder. Rotating three lefty hitters - Jenkins, Stairs, Dobbs - is unthinkable. In any case, the team needs additional right-sided swingers, both starting and off the bench.
Shane Victorino and Jason Werth are set in the other outfield slots. The defensive prowess of these two is one of the Phillies' enduring strengths - Shane and Jason have terrific range and strong, accurate arms, probably as good a defensive outfield combination as there is in the big leagues. Offensively, the two are coming off very solid years but they are not without issues. Victorino's playoff heroics not withstanding, he was unsuccessful in clutch situations too often in the regular season. Werth has a strikeout problem, 144 in '08 in a less-than-full season. To justify that kind of number, he needs to hit at least 30 hr next year. He also has a history of struggling against right-handed pitchers. The guess here is that both Victorino and Werth will endure extended dry spells at the plate from time to time requiring Manuel to spell them. But for the time being, all eyes are on left field.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Phillies' Infield - Review and Preview
For most of the season, Charlie Manuel platooned his catcher and third baseman. Pedro Feliz started a majority of the games at third base but Greg Dobbs received a significant number of starts against right-handed pitchers. Likewise, Carlos Ruiz started most games behind the plate but Chris Coste played often, particularly earlier in the season when he was hitting well. However, this pattern changed late in the season. Although Manuel never made any formal announcement on the subject, Feliz and Ruiz began starting virtually every game. Ruiz had a terrible year at the plate but he is an excellent defensive catcher, and when Coste's hitting went south, pencilling Carlos' name in the lineup became an easy decision. The icing on the cake was that Ruiz' hitting picked up dramatically at the end of the season and into the playoffs. Manuel's decision to play Feliz more was obviously dictated by defensive considerations - Feliz was rock solid with a Gold Glove to prove it. Pedro was erratic at the plate all year but he did manage to come through at some very opportune times.
So assuming the Phils stand pat, we are looking at an infield of Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins and Feliz next year with Bruntlett as backup. Defensively, Ruiz, Rollins, and Feliz are as good as it gets. Utley is solid if not spectacular. Howard, unfortunately, is a liability, but this is not the American League and there is no place for him to hide.
Offensively, Utley, Howard and Rollins are the team's nucleus, but in the best of all possible worlds, they would and should each hit at least 15 points higher next year. If Feliz plays almost every day, he should hit at least 20 home runs but probably not for average. Ruiz is the intriguing case. It should not be hard to improve on his .219 average of 2008 and if he can get to .260 with a bit of power, he would provide some needed juice to the bottom of the order. But more importantly, it would enable Manuel to stick with Feliz. It's difficult for any team, especially in the National League and no DH, to use two position players solely for their defense. It just takes too much pressure off opposing pitchers. If either Ruiz or Feliz don't become a more consistent threat at the plate, the Phils' manager will likely have to return to some sort of platooning scheme, or even consider a trade or acquisition.
So assuming the Phils stand pat, we are looking at an infield of Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins and Feliz next year with Bruntlett as backup. Defensively, Ruiz, Rollins, and Feliz are as good as it gets. Utley is solid if not spectacular. Howard, unfortunately, is a liability, but this is not the American League and there is no place for him to hide.
Offensively, Utley, Howard and Rollins are the team's nucleus, but in the best of all possible worlds, they would and should each hit at least 15 points higher next year. If Feliz plays almost every day, he should hit at least 20 home runs but probably not for average. Ruiz is the intriguing case. It should not be hard to improve on his .219 average of 2008 and if he can get to .260 with a bit of power, he would provide some needed juice to the bottom of the order. But more importantly, it would enable Manuel to stick with Feliz. It's difficult for any team, especially in the National League and no DH, to use two position players solely for their defense. It just takes too much pressure off opposing pitchers. If either Ruiz or Feliz don't become a more consistent threat at the plate, the Phils' manager will likely have to return to some sort of platooning scheme, or even consider a trade or acquisition.
Friday, November 21, 2008
PHILLIES BULLPEN - REVIEW AND PREVIEW
The Phillies' bullpen was the strongest and most consistent component of the team last season. Brad Lidge made them almost unbeatable after the 8th inning, and their mix of middle and late relievers gave them at least a chance to get to Lidge when the starters faltered or failed to go deep into the game. Looking ahead to 2009, the relievers may be a victim of their own success as it will be difficult to even match their accomplishments in 2008.
The pitcher who will have the most difficult comparison of course is Brad Lidge who is coming off one of the greatest closer years of all time. Can he repeat perfection? Not likely. But there is no reason to think he cannot continue to be one of the most overpowering finishers in the game for a number of years to come. It is true that late last season, Lidge had to work his way through several self-inflicted jams. But rather than be a source of concern, this highlighted his mental toughness, a closer's best friend when he doesn't have his best stuff.
The most significant development down the stretch in '08 was the emergence of Ryan Madson as the 8th inning closer. Prior to this, Madson had been frustratingly inconsistent. If this emergence carries over and proves to be the real deal, the Phils' pen could indeed become even more formidable. The only reservation here though is whether Madson has that Lidge-like toughness. One still senses that Madson's psyche is fragile and could crack under pressure. It remains to be seen if he is truly over that hump.
One large question mark is Chad Durbin. Durbin was huge in middle and long relief, appearing in 71 games. However, he faltered late. Whether this was simply due to fatigue, as many speculated, or other issues, mechanical or otherwise, remains to be seen. How this plays out in spring training and the early regular season will be key.
The Phillies are not loaded with left-handed relievers. J.C. Romero's appearances are sure to elevate your heart rate, but for two years he has been remarkably effective. Scott Eyre, who has been re-signed, pitched well but 14 innings is hardly an adequate sample size. If J.A. Happ does not make it to the starting rotation he could be useful out of the bullpen.
So the nucleus of the relief core is intact. The best guess here is that the front office will attempt to add depth to Durbin's spot and perhaps add another southpaw if at all possible.
The pitcher who will have the most difficult comparison of course is Brad Lidge who is coming off one of the greatest closer years of all time. Can he repeat perfection? Not likely. But there is no reason to think he cannot continue to be one of the most overpowering finishers in the game for a number of years to come. It is true that late last season, Lidge had to work his way through several self-inflicted jams. But rather than be a source of concern, this highlighted his mental toughness, a closer's best friend when he doesn't have his best stuff.
The most significant development down the stretch in '08 was the emergence of Ryan Madson as the 8th inning closer. Prior to this, Madson had been frustratingly inconsistent. If this emergence carries over and proves to be the real deal, the Phils' pen could indeed become even more formidable. The only reservation here though is whether Madson has that Lidge-like toughness. One still senses that Madson's psyche is fragile and could crack under pressure. It remains to be seen if he is truly over that hump.
One large question mark is Chad Durbin. Durbin was huge in middle and long relief, appearing in 71 games. However, he faltered late. Whether this was simply due to fatigue, as many speculated, or other issues, mechanical or otherwise, remains to be seen. How this plays out in spring training and the early regular season will be key.
The Phillies are not loaded with left-handed relievers. J.C. Romero's appearances are sure to elevate your heart rate, but for two years he has been remarkably effective. Scott Eyre, who has been re-signed, pitched well but 14 innings is hardly an adequate sample size. If J.A. Happ does not make it to the starting rotation he could be useful out of the bullpen.
So the nucleus of the relief core is intact. The best guess here is that the front office will attempt to add depth to Durbin's spot and perhaps add another southpaw if at all possible.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
PHILLIES STARTING ROTATION - PART 2
So at least for the present, the rotation starts with Hamels, Myers, Moyer and Blanton. As noted last time, there are legitimate questions surrounding the reliability and/or durability of Myers, Moyer and Blanton but right now they have each earned first dibs on a regular starting spot. So the big question is the fifth starter. The internal options are Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ, taking Brad Durbin out of the bullpen, and prospects Carlos Carrasco and Drew Carpenter.
If Kendrick could return to form, he would seem to be the best of this group. He has had a full year of starting in the majors and has shown the ability to go deep into games. But as he unraveled last season, he was a control pitcher without control, a bad combination. Happ would likely be the second choice. He exhibited poise in his few outings in '08 and in terms of style, he is something of a left-handed Kendrick. Durbin raises two concerns. One is that he faltered late in the season. The other is his important spot in the bullpen would have to be filled. Carrasco and Carpenter are raw and untested.
Will the front office go outside of the organization? Management has implied that they will not go after a high-profile pitcher such as Sabbathia. But it would be shocking if they did not make a move for a second tier free agent pitcher or trade for one or more. Based on their experience with Adam Eaton and Freddy Garcia, and other notorious examples like Barry Zito, they should and likely will tread carefully.
The Phils will likely begin the '09 campaign with the four starters who get them through the post-season plus Kendrick/Happ or an outsider. But given the fragility of pitchers in general, and the baggage that most of the Phillies' starters have in particular, they had better have options 2,3 and 4 at the ready.
If Kendrick could return to form, he would seem to be the best of this group. He has had a full year of starting in the majors and has shown the ability to go deep into games. But as he unraveled last season, he was a control pitcher without control, a bad combination. Happ would likely be the second choice. He exhibited poise in his few outings in '08 and in terms of style, he is something of a left-handed Kendrick. Durbin raises two concerns. One is that he faltered late in the season. The other is his important spot in the bullpen would have to be filled. Carrasco and Carpenter are raw and untested.
Will the front office go outside of the organization? Management has implied that they will not go after a high-profile pitcher such as Sabbathia. But it would be shocking if they did not make a move for a second tier free agent pitcher or trade for one or more. Based on their experience with Adam Eaton and Freddy Garcia, and other notorious examples like Barry Zito, they should and likely will tread carefully.
The Phils will likely begin the '09 campaign with the four starters who get them through the post-season plus Kendrick/Happ or an outsider. But given the fragility of pitchers in general, and the baggage that most of the Phillies' starters have in particular, they had better have options 2,3 and 4 at the ready.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Phillies' Starting Rotation: Review and Preview
Baseball watchers around the country might be excused for thinking the Phillies' starting rotation in 2008 was in the tradition of the formidable pitchers of the great Yankee or Oakland Athletic dynasties. After all, the Phils steamrolled their way through the post-season with only three losses which included only two weak starting efforts, one by Myers and another by Moyer. Hamels, Blanton, Myers and Moyer were imposing if not necessarily overpowering. However, for the Delaware Valley fans who saw the first 162 games, the reality was not so simple.
Overall, the starters were in fact effective and a major part of the Philadelphia story. But there was a lot of addition and subtraction. Eaton was now you see him, now you don't. Kendrick was for a while a major producer, then he was a nonproducer and gone. Myers performed his usual high-wire act. Hamels anchored the staff and was outstanding. Moyer overachieved, again. Blanton made a major contribution. But for a team that just won the World Series, this cast of characters presents far more questions than answers going into 2009.
Start with Cole Hamels. He performed brilliantly in the playoffs and Series to go along with a solid regular season which was marred by poor run support. Barring any health issues, you should be able to pencil in at least 15 wins for Hamels. So far so good.
But then there is Myers. It seems there are many who believe that he has exorcised all his demons, both mechanical and otherwise, and from here on it's clear sailing. That seems a bit premature. He pitched well in the second half of the season, but he was bombed in two outings late in the season to go along with that bad start in the post-season. All that you can pencil in here is a question mark, although with Myers' newfound hitting prowess, he may be the solution to the left fielder issues.
Jamie Moyer continues to defy numerous rules of physics as well as the normal aging process. It seems fruitless to bet against him but every time out he seems to be engaging in his own high-wire act without a net - there's just no margin for error. Joe Blanton was solid if not flashy but he only pitched in 13 games and struggled with his control frequently so the jury is still deliberating here. Also, Moyer and Blanton rarely went more than 5-6 innings so there was usually pressure on the middle relievers.
So how should the Phils structure their staff going into next season? Wholesale changes or minor tweaking?
Overall, the starters were in fact effective and a major part of the Philadelphia story. But there was a lot of addition and subtraction. Eaton was now you see him, now you don't. Kendrick was for a while a major producer, then he was a nonproducer and gone. Myers performed his usual high-wire act. Hamels anchored the staff and was outstanding. Moyer overachieved, again. Blanton made a major contribution. But for a team that just won the World Series, this cast of characters presents far more questions than answers going into 2009.
Start with Cole Hamels. He performed brilliantly in the playoffs and Series to go along with a solid regular season which was marred by poor run support. Barring any health issues, you should be able to pencil in at least 15 wins for Hamels. So far so good.
But then there is Myers. It seems there are many who believe that he has exorcised all his demons, both mechanical and otherwise, and from here on it's clear sailing. That seems a bit premature. He pitched well in the second half of the season, but he was bombed in two outings late in the season to go along with that bad start in the post-season. All that you can pencil in here is a question mark, although with Myers' newfound hitting prowess, he may be the solution to the left fielder issues.
Jamie Moyer continues to defy numerous rules of physics as well as the normal aging process. It seems fruitless to bet against him but every time out he seems to be engaging in his own high-wire act without a net - there's just no margin for error. Joe Blanton was solid if not flashy but he only pitched in 13 games and struggled with his control frequently so the jury is still deliberating here. Also, Moyer and Blanton rarely went more than 5-6 innings so there was usually pressure on the middle relievers.
So how should the Phils structure their staff going into next season? Wholesale changes or minor tweaking?
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Elton Brand and the Sixers - A Cautionary Tale for the Phillies
The early struggles of the Sixers may offer some lessons for the Phillies as they consider roster changes over the next few months. First a few caveats. Basketball is very different from baseball - integrating a new player is certainly not as complicated in the latter. Furthermore, the difficulties the Sixers are having incorporating Elton Brand into the offense may well be ironed out over time. But there are still issues worth considering.
Elton Brand is a blue chip player with impeccable credentials - scorer, rebounder, intelligent, good attitude, defender. The only question might be his multiple injuries in recent years although he seems fine at the present. However, his arrival in Philadelphia has required the home team to move Andre Iguodala, probably their highest profile player, to another position in which he is obviously uncomfortable. Brand's presence has slowed down the Sixers' running game which was so important in last year's playoff run. Brand plays with his back to the basket and requires the ball a lot which is causing stagnation and confusion among the other players. Even the team defense seems to be tentative. Again, this could just be normal growing pains and the Sixers could be a stronger team in a couple of months, better equipped to make a deep playoff run. But one wonders of Philadelphia's management considered all of the implications of the deal.
How does this relate to the Phillies? They have a number of personnel decisions to make. Some of these will be determined by the business of baseball, free agency, etc. But there's always that pressure to not just stand there but do something. The left field situation is the most obvious example. Whether Pat Burrell stays or not may be out of the Phils' hands if he gets a large offer from an American League team. But to contemplate replacing him with Manny Ramirez, which reportedly Charlie Manuel favors, is extremely risky. Burrell is loaded with liabilities. He is a mediocre to poor fielder, poor baserunner, strikes out too much. He has two assets. He has power at the plate which can only be realized if the pitcher makes a mistake. Ramirez can do things with the bat that Burrell, and most others, can only dream about. But Burrell's second asset is he is a team-oriented guy, and that is something Manny can only dream about. It should also be added that Ramirez is the only left fielder who makes Pat Burrell look like a Gold Glover.
This is not to argue that the Phils should make a full court press to resign Burrell. Adding a competent right-handed batter to platoon with their lefty swingers in left field might well be an upgrade. But one of the Phillies' unsung heroes in their championship run was chemistry which could be destabilized by a volatile entity like Manny Ramirez.
Elton Brand is a blue chip player with impeccable credentials - scorer, rebounder, intelligent, good attitude, defender. The only question might be his multiple injuries in recent years although he seems fine at the present. However, his arrival in Philadelphia has required the home team to move Andre Iguodala, probably their highest profile player, to another position in which he is obviously uncomfortable. Brand's presence has slowed down the Sixers' running game which was so important in last year's playoff run. Brand plays with his back to the basket and requires the ball a lot which is causing stagnation and confusion among the other players. Even the team defense seems to be tentative. Again, this could just be normal growing pains and the Sixers could be a stronger team in a couple of months, better equipped to make a deep playoff run. But one wonders of Philadelphia's management considered all of the implications of the deal.
How does this relate to the Phillies? They have a number of personnel decisions to make. Some of these will be determined by the business of baseball, free agency, etc. But there's always that pressure to not just stand there but do something. The left field situation is the most obvious example. Whether Pat Burrell stays or not may be out of the Phils' hands if he gets a large offer from an American League team. But to contemplate replacing him with Manny Ramirez, which reportedly Charlie Manuel favors, is extremely risky. Burrell is loaded with liabilities. He is a mediocre to poor fielder, poor baserunner, strikes out too much. He has two assets. He has power at the plate which can only be realized if the pitcher makes a mistake. Ramirez can do things with the bat that Burrell, and most others, can only dream about. But Burrell's second asset is he is a team-oriented guy, and that is something Manny can only dream about. It should also be added that Ramirez is the only left fielder who makes Pat Burrell look like a Gold Glover.
This is not to argue that the Phils should make a full court press to resign Burrell. Adding a competent right-handed batter to platoon with their lefty swingers in left field might well be an upgrade. But one of the Phillies' unsung heroes in their championship run was chemistry which could be destabilized by a volatile entity like Manny Ramirez.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Phils-Dodgers Game 3
Notes on Game 3:
The Phillies' hitting woes continue. When their starting pitcher implodes, as Moyer did last night, the chances of coming back from a big deficit are slim. They had a few opportunities to rally, but failed to produce clutch hits, something we have seen over and over this year. In the regular season, the Phils had a team batting average of .255, one of the lowest in the majors. In the current series, their team batting average is ------- .255. In 2007, the team batting average was .274. Quite a drop off. Statistics can be very telling. They didn't hit well in the Milwaukee playoff series either. It's remarkable they have been as successful as they have. If you take away Brett Myers' post-season hitting prowess, the Phillies could have their backs to the wall. At this point, would Charlie Manuel consider benching Jason Werth for a left-handed batter? It's hard to overestimate the importance of base running to the Phils' offense this year but when Rollins and Werth don't get in base, that advantage disappears.
The Phillies' hitting woes continue. When their starting pitcher implodes, as Moyer did last night, the chances of coming back from a big deficit are slim. They had a few opportunities to rally, but failed to produce clutch hits, something we have seen over and over this year. In the regular season, the Phils had a team batting average of .255, one of the lowest in the majors. In the current series, their team batting average is ------- .255. In 2007, the team batting average was .274. Quite a drop off. Statistics can be very telling. They didn't hit well in the Milwaukee playoff series either. It's remarkable they have been as successful as they have. If you take away Brett Myers' post-season hitting prowess, the Phillies could have their backs to the wall. At this point, would Charlie Manuel consider benching Jason Werth for a left-handed batter? It's hard to overestimate the importance of base running to the Phils' offense this year but when Rollins and Werth don't get in base, that advantage disappears.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Phils-Dodgers Game I
Notes On Game One:
1. The Phils' victory last night was the result of a formula they employed all year - a strong 7 innings from their starter, excellent relief pitching, a couple of timely hits, and the speed of Shane Victorino. There was also some good fortune the Phillies were able to capitalize on: Ramirez just missing a home run in the first inning and the error allowing Victorino to reach base in front of Chase Utley. There was irony too, as Pat Burrell noted, in that the homers of Utley and Burrell probably would not have been out of the park in Dodger Stadium, whereas Manny's shot probably would have.
2. The most important development for the Phillies in recent weeks has been the emergence of Ryan Madson. Last night's performance in a pressure situation can only boost his confidence further. With Madson and Lidge, the Phils can really shorten a game for their starter.
3. Tim McCarver and Joe Buck talked about how the Phils' 1-6 hitters have carried the team. Well, only in the sense that at different times during the season, one or two of these hitters have carried the team. But certainly not in unison. For lengthy intervals, Rollins, Werth, Burrell, Utley, Howard, and Victorino have virtually disappeared. Buck added that the Phillies have been weighed down offensively by the bottom of the line up. Hardly a surprise as two of those hitters (Felice and Ruiz) are in the lineup primarily for their defense.
4. Ken Rosenthal, the Fox baseball analyst, picked the Dodgers to win the series but after last night's game he says the Phillies could win. That's like a stock market analyst, if anyone is willing to admit that these days, saying stocks could continue to go down but they could also go up.
1. The Phils' victory last night was the result of a formula they employed all year - a strong 7 innings from their starter, excellent relief pitching, a couple of timely hits, and the speed of Shane Victorino. There was also some good fortune the Phillies were able to capitalize on: Ramirez just missing a home run in the first inning and the error allowing Victorino to reach base in front of Chase Utley. There was irony too, as Pat Burrell noted, in that the homers of Utley and Burrell probably would not have been out of the park in Dodger Stadium, whereas Manny's shot probably would have.
2. The most important development for the Phillies in recent weeks has been the emergence of Ryan Madson. Last night's performance in a pressure situation can only boost his confidence further. With Madson and Lidge, the Phils can really shorten a game for their starter.
3. Tim McCarver and Joe Buck talked about how the Phils' 1-6 hitters have carried the team. Well, only in the sense that at different times during the season, one or two of these hitters have carried the team. But certainly not in unison. For lengthy intervals, Rollins, Werth, Burrell, Utley, Howard, and Victorino have virtually disappeared. Buck added that the Phillies have been weighed down offensively by the bottom of the line up. Hardly a surprise as two of those hitters (Felice and Ruiz) are in the lineup primarily for their defense.
4. Ken Rosenthal, the Fox baseball analyst, picked the Dodgers to win the series but after last night's game he says the Phillies could win. That's like a stock market analyst, if anyone is willing to admit that these days, saying stocks could continue to go down but they could also go up.
Monday, September 15, 2008
The Suicide Squeeze
Milwaukee at Philadelphia in an important late-season game. The Phils had a 3-1 lead going into the bottom of the 7th but their 7th and 8th inning relief pitching has been increasingly unreliable. An insurance run or two would be most welcome so they could hand a lead to their indomitable closer, Brad Lidge, in the 9th inning.
In the 7th, the Phillies' fleet center fielder, Shane Victorino, was on second with no outs. So far so good. Pedro Feliz was next up. He is an inconsistent hitter with power, prone to the strike out. Somewhat surprisingly he bunted and the sacrifice was successful. Victorino advanced to third base, now with one out. The next batter was Carlos Ruiz. Ruiz is an excellent defensive catcher with a batting average barely above .200 all season. However, in recent weeks, his hitting has been showing signs of life. On his way to the plate, Ruiz matter-of-factly asked a teammate the sign for the squeeze. Manager Charlie Manuel, who has not called for the squeeze all year, heard this exchange and was somewhat bemused.
The relief pitcher for the Brewers was right-hander Carlos Villanueva who was pitching from the windup with Victorino on third. So the stars were aligned for a successful squeeze: fast runner on third, a right-handed batter to block the catcher's view, a pitcher using the windup, a good bunter, and presumably the element of surprise. A left-handed pitcher would have been even better, but what does it matter because Charlie Manuel NEVER squeezes anyway?
Ruiz worked the count to 2 and 1, and one of the balls was a pitchout - so much for the element of surprise. Villanueva then started into his windup. Victorino held his ground momentarily but then broke hard for the plate. In the meantime, Ruiz did not show bunt until the right-hander released the pitch. It was too late for the Brewers to react. Ruiz's bunt was soft and up the third base line, much better than was needed. Victorino scored easily, the Phils had their insurance run, and they went on to win. And Charlie Manuel was still bemused.
Baseball's suicide squeeze - a beautiful thing.
In the 7th, the Phillies' fleet center fielder, Shane Victorino, was on second with no outs. So far so good. Pedro Feliz was next up. He is an inconsistent hitter with power, prone to the strike out. Somewhat surprisingly he bunted and the sacrifice was successful. Victorino advanced to third base, now with one out. The next batter was Carlos Ruiz. Ruiz is an excellent defensive catcher with a batting average barely above .200 all season. However, in recent weeks, his hitting has been showing signs of life. On his way to the plate, Ruiz matter-of-factly asked a teammate the sign for the squeeze. Manager Charlie Manuel, who has not called for the squeeze all year, heard this exchange and was somewhat bemused.
The relief pitcher for the Brewers was right-hander Carlos Villanueva who was pitching from the windup with Victorino on third. So the stars were aligned for a successful squeeze: fast runner on third, a right-handed batter to block the catcher's view, a pitcher using the windup, a good bunter, and presumably the element of surprise. A left-handed pitcher would have been even better, but what does it matter because Charlie Manuel NEVER squeezes anyway?
Ruiz worked the count to 2 and 1, and one of the balls was a pitchout - so much for the element of surprise. Villanueva then started into his windup. Victorino held his ground momentarily but then broke hard for the plate. In the meantime, Ruiz did not show bunt until the right-hander released the pitch. It was too late for the Brewers to react. Ruiz's bunt was soft and up the third base line, much better than was needed. Victorino scored easily, the Phils had their insurance run, and they went on to win. And Charlie Manuel was still bemused.
Baseball's suicide squeeze - a beautiful thing.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Jimmy Rollins
Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies is absorbing a very harsh lesson in the vagaries of fame. Rollins had one of the most productive seasons ever by a leadoff hitter in 2007. He was recognized as the MVP in the National League and the articulate, engaging shortstop was the toast of Philadelphia. But that was last year. In 2008, Rollins has struggled at the plate for most of the year and his latest tailspin has dragged his batting average into the 250's. And it gets worse. On a national TV sports talk show, Rollins called Philadelphia sports fans "front-runners". The said fans took umbrage and when Philly fans take umbrage, you had better gather up the women and children and head for higher ground. No less an eminence than Tim McCarver commented that Philly fans may be a lot of things, but they are not front-runners.
From this fan's perspective, this seems like a great deal of fuss about very little. Rollins is a consummate team player who is frustrated with his subpar performance. He clearly did not mean his remarks in a malicious way and if he could have rehearsed them, no doubt he would have chosen his words differently. But has it gotten to the point where we parse an athlete's every sentence as if he were running for national office?
There is a more important issue for Philly fans: Was Rollins' career season in 2007 a case of overachievement, or was it the result of steady progress to a higher level? Jimmy Rollins, now in his 8th full season, has been a solid player but he is a career 275 hitter. Who anticipated 212 hits, 30 home runs, 94 rbi's, 139 runs and more? Will the real Jimmy Rollins please stand up?
From this fan's perspective, this seems like a great deal of fuss about very little. Rollins is a consummate team player who is frustrated with his subpar performance. He clearly did not mean his remarks in a malicious way and if he could have rehearsed them, no doubt he would have chosen his words differently. But has it gotten to the point where we parse an athlete's every sentence as if he were running for national office?
There is a more important issue for Philly fans: Was Rollins' career season in 2007 a case of overachievement, or was it the result of steady progress to a higher level? Jimmy Rollins, now in his 8th full season, has been a solid player but he is a career 275 hitter. Who anticipated 212 hits, 30 home runs, 94 rbi's, 139 runs and more? Will the real Jimmy Rollins please stand up?
Friday, August 15, 2008
Chase Utley's Batting Slump
Second baseman Chase Utley of the Philadelphia Phillies is one of the best young players in baseball, the leading vote-getter in fact for this year's National League All-Star team. This season Utley got off to a torrid start, among the leaders in batting average and leading the league in home runs and RBI's. However, in recent months he has endured at least two prolonged hitting slumps and his overall production is down significantly. He is also on a pace to strike out more than 100 times. Hitting slumps by the best of hitters are hardly unusual. But Utley's swing is quite unique; it is short and compact with an abbreviated backswing and follow-through. It somewhat resembles the short swing of the powerful golfer J.B. Holmes. One would have expected Utley's mechanics to provide a degree of immunity to extended hitting droughts and excessive strikeouts. Hitting theorists will have to return to their laboratories.
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