The Phillies' 800 Pound Gorilla In the Room

Most of the attention in recent weeks has been on the Phillies' pitching staff. And not without reason. The additions of Lee and Martinez. Multiple injuries among the the relief core. The emergence of J. Happ. The travails of Cole Hamels. The future of Jamie Moyer. And watching Brad Lidge enter a game has become like observing the pilot of your airplane getting on board carrying a copy of "How To Overcome Your Fear of Flying". Not exactly a confidence-builder.

But the underlying assumption seems to be that if the pitching can be sorted out, the Phillies can start printing World Series tickets. Not so fast. The 800 pound gorilla in the room is the Philadelphia hitters.

Most everyone seems to be in awe of the Fightin's offensive juggernaut which leads the league in runs scored, averaging over 5 runs per game, and home runs. But if you've watched this team for the past three seasons, you know it's not that simple.

First of all, that runs/game stat is misleading. The team has had 51 games scoring 4 runs or less, and 40 games with three or less. On the other hand, they have had 13 games scoring 10 or more runs and 9 games with 8 or more runs. So many of those runs were of little consequence.

The Phils have become very dependent on the long ball, but are not so good at small ball. Even their running game, which played a major role in '07 and '08, seems to be less effective. When they find themselves in a home run drought, as they are right now, runs can be hard to come by. Jimmy Rollins has been their most reliable power hitter in recent weeks, not a good sign. Too many runners are being left on base, but again this has been a characteristic of this squad for several years.

Jason Werth and Ryan Howard are major talents but they are excrutiatingly inconsistent with a tendency to strike out. Werth rarely has more than one good week in a row and Howard's inability to hit southpaws this year (under .200) has been a major liability. Utley, Victorino, and Rollins are all susceptible to frequent dry spells. Rollins of course is coming out of a three-month drought with a vengeance but he's still at a point, in mid-August, where a 1 for 4 day raises his average.

The addition of the rock-solid Ibanez has helped to even out the extreme peaks and valleys of the offense. But even Raul, who at one point was a Triple Crown threat, has been slowly reverting to his excellent, but more earthly, lifetime .290 batting average.

Last summer, the Phillie bats were struggling until the stretch run when Howard and Rollins went on tears and carried the team to the playoffs. A similar scenario may unfold in 2009. But last year, all that was required was a one-run lead for Lidge in the 9th. This time around, they may have to find a new recipe for success.